Topic: Intriguing matchup, so I dusted off the simulator...

[ought-three]

Sagarin Ratings: Marshall 55%, Marshall appx. 1-point favorite, Total 67.05 (Marshall 34 - 33 WKU)
Massey Ratings: 50-50%, Marshall 1-point favorite, Total 61 (31-30)
0/3 Simulator: Marshall 55%, Marshall appx 2-point favorite, Total 64 (33-31)

I can guarantee you the difference in each scenario is the so-called "home field advantage" factor in each system. Mine is 2, Sagarin's is currently 1.90, and Massey is 2.23.

   Home field advantage is more than just playing at someone else's stadium; it means going into a hostile and unwelcoming environment that disrupts your senses. I haven't been to a game in years, but it sounds like that has not been the environment at The Joan. Therefore, it's really a coin flip as to who wins today.

   The indicator that gives me the most pause is that Marshall has twice as much variability in their offensive scoring when compared to WKU, while both teams are about equal in terms of variability in points allowed. That's a pernicious stat that makes me think this forecast may not come true. In any case, I wish the boys well today - and you too. GO HERD!

[ought-three]

That's a pernicious stat that makes me think this forecast may not come true. In any case, I wish the boys well today - and you too. GO HERD!

Glad to see my gut feeling is wrong so far. Good job, boys! Keep it up :)

[Echo 5]

Good to hear from you again Ought-3!  I really miss your predictor posts - hope to see more of them in the future. 

[ought-three]

Good to hear from you again Ought-3!  I really miss your predictor posts - hope to see more of them in the future.

Thanks! As time permits, I'll try to post more often.