With all of the new teams, this year's data was a real pain to comprehend. I made a couple minor tweaks to the formula this year. I did not include the stats of all FBS teams, only the subset of FBS opponents directly connected to this year's CUSA. Given that each team's output is relative to how they would perform against the imaginary "Median U" , the set did not necessarily need to be complete - only adequate. Being an amateur analyst, I don't have the resources or time to make every possible connection. I also quit factoring in home field advantage. The teams that have great home field advantage are usually great teams to begin with. Home field advantage isn't much help to a team that sucks. Finally, I dropped the probability stuff. However they fell, they fell - regardless of how close the margin.
Again, I am only reporting the spreadsheet output. Team's projected performance is based on returning starters and change in schedule difficulty. Then they theoretically play "Median U" and either win (+), tie (0), or lose (-). Based on their relative performances, I rank the teams. I'm fairly pleased with how the remaining CUSA are placed, but I'm at a loss on some of the old Sun Belt schools. I feel fairly good about where MU is, though I'd personally put us at 7-5 or 8-4. Regardless of my feelings, bowl eligibility seems almost certain. Here is how the formula has CUSA for 2013-2014:
Conf Overall
W L W L
(W)Tulsa -2.59 8 0 11 1
(E) East Carolina -3.55 7 1 9 3
(E) Marshall -3.98 6 2 9 3
(W) North Texas -5.36 7 1 10 2
(W) Rice -6.25 6 2 7 5
(W) Tulane -6.62 4 4 7 5
(E) Southern Miss. -7.92 5 3 6 6
(E) UAB -8.45 4 4 5 7
(W) Louisiana Tech -10.0 3 5 4 8
(W) UTEP -10.16 3 5 5 7
(E) Middle Tenn. -10.99 2 6 2 10
(W) UTSA -11.10 0 8 1 11
(E) FIU -11.35 1 7 2 10
(E) Fla. Atlantic -12.59 0 8 1 11
Tulsa will beat ECU for the CUSA title. Marshall will rank 3rd in the conference and will head to the Beef O' Brady's Bowl against somebody from the new AAC - probably an old CUSA foe.
Our Schedule:
Miami-OH (Win)
G-W (Win)
@Ohio (Win)
@Va Tech. (Loss)
UTSA (Win)
@FAU (Win)
@MTSU (Win)
SoMiss (Win)
UAB (Win)
@Tulsa (Loss)
@FIU (Win)
ECU (Loss) - I know, you hate me. It's what the output says, I'm just the messenger 8)
Final record: 9-3 (6-2)
The CUSA is significantly weaker than before. Going back, CUSA usually averaged about -3 in my formula. This year, it averages -8. That is the primary reason - in my opinion - our record will improve by so much. It is probably coming at the right time for everyone: Doc, Hamrick, and the Herd Faithful.
So, there it is. I meant to get this out sooner, but I'm busy writing a different article. I covet your feedback.