Topic: Looking back over my (and svherd's) preseason predictions...

[ought-three]

Not my best year predicting the conference (too many new teams, with little head-to-head data)

Final record: 9-3 (6-2)

  The CUSA is significantly weaker than before. Going back, CUSA usually averaged about -3 in my formula. This year, it averages -8. That is the primary reason - in my opinion - our record will improve by so much. It is probably coming at the right time for everyone: Doc, Hamrick, and the Herd Faithful.

I'll give myself an A- on this section. The schedule wasn't the WHOLE reason we improved. We're playing pretty good ball these last few weeks.

                                       Conf      Overall   
                                      W   L   W   L
(W)Tulsa                   -2.59    8   0   11   1
(E) East Carolina           -3.55    7   1   9   3
(E) Marshall                   -3.98    6   2   9   3
(W) North Texas           -5.36    7   1   10   2
(W) Rice                   -6.25      6   2   7   5
(W) Tulane                   -6.62    4   4   7   5
(E) Southern Miss.   -7.92    5   3   6   6
(E) UAB                   -8.45    4   4   5   7
(W) Louisiana Tech   -10.0    3   5   4   8
(W) UTEP                   -10.16   3   5   5   7
(E) Middle Tenn.           -10.99   2   6   2   10
(W) UTSA                   -11.10   0   8   1   11
(E) FIU                   -11.35   1   7   2   10
(E) Fla. Atlantic           -12.59   0   8   1   11

    I just have to eat this. Tulsa WAY under-performed, though I am pleased to see that North Texas, Rice, and Tulane were ranked among the top in the West. I was really scratching my head on that one initially.  Southern Miss underachieved bigtime.
   Some questioned the placement of MTSU. Clearly, they were better than my 2-10 prediction. The same could be said for FAU and UTSA. FIU was about where I figured. GRADE: C-

Miami-OH (Win)
G-W (Win)
@Ohio (Win)
@Va Tech. (Loss)
UTSA (Win)
@FAU (Win)
@MTSU (Win)
SoMiss (Win)
UAB (Win)
@Tulsa (Loss)
@FIU (Win)
ECU (Loss) - I know, you hate me. It's what the output says, I'm just the messenger.

   I got the actual number right, but we traded the Tulsa and ECU losses for Ohio and MTSU. The same basic thing happened last year, when I had us finishing 5-7. That year we won one we weren't supposed to and lost one we weren't supposed to. GRADE: B-

svherd gets the prize, though:

I was wondering the same thing. MTSU should fare much better than that.

I will tell you why we beat ECU -

1. Its senior day for us
2. A lot will be riding on this game
3. Its a home game
4. Its in November - hopefully it will be cold.
5. The week before us, ECU plays  NC State - they will come in flat after an emotional, hard fought win or loss against the Wolfpack.

jmo.