Topic: Seeding Scenario Per Herdzone

[Herdmeister]

HUNTINGTON, W.Va. – Major college basketball staffs have directors of operation, directors of scouting, video coordinators, graduate assistants and managers.

What they really need this time of year is a bracketologist and numerologist.

With Conference USA heading into the final day of the men’s basketball regular season, Marshall (15-15, 11-6) has more to consider on Senior Night at the Henderson Center than facing Southern Miss (8-20, 5-12), which will be playing its final game of 2015-16 here on Saturday night.

While the Golden Eagles, mired in NCAA sanction issues, are ineligible for next week’s C-USA Tournament in Birmingham, Ala., the Herd’s 97-94 loss Thursday night to Louisiana Tech left Marshall with no chance to get the No. 2 seed in the 13-team bracket behind UAB.

As for the aforementioned bracketologist, the Herd needs one to figure out the potential permutations for the C-USA tourney. Simply put, Marshall could be seeded anywhere between third and fifth … and the top four seeds receive byes into Thursday’s quarterfinals.

The Herd could be involved in standings ties with Louisiana Tech (23-7, 12-5 C-USA), Middle Tennessee (20-9, 12-5) and Old Dominion (18-12, 11-6), in multiple ways. Tech plays at Western Kentucky (15-15, 7-10); Middle at FIU (13-17, 7-10) and ODU at Rice (12-18, 7-10).
 
 
The only ways the Herd can get the No. 3 seed are via a three- or four-team tie. As for trying to figure it out, this longtime press-row sitter has done it for you. Here are the possible scenarios.

*If Old Dominion wins and Marshall loses, the Monarchs are seeded No. 4 and the Herd No. 5. If the opposite happens, then reverse the aforementioned seeds.

*Win or lose, if Marshall and Old Dominion finish in a two-way tie, the Herd gets the higher seed thanks to a head-to-head series sweep of two games.

*If Marshall and Tech lose and ODU and Middle win, the Nos. 2-5 seeds, in order, are MTSU, ODU, Tech, Marshall.

*In a three-team tie for third through fifth place, C-USA (like most conferences) uses a “mini-conference” format among the deadlocked team. The head-to-head results are combined, and that system works for a three-way tie in three scenarios:

1) In a tie among Marshall, Middle and Old Dominion at 12-6, the Herd gets the No. 3 seed (3-1 versus the other two). Middle is No. 4 (2-1) and Old Dominion is No. 5 (0-3).

2) In a tie among Marshall, Tech and ODU at 12-6, Marshall gets the third (2-1), Tech is fourth (1-1) and ODU fifth (1-2).

3) A three-way tie for second place among Marshall, Middle and Tech at 12-6 (that would mean Tech, Middle and ODU would have to lose), the tiebreaker is more complicated. The Bulldogs get the No. 2 because it defeated the other two teams head-to-head. The Herd and Blue Raiders are each 1-2 in that scenario, so that tie isn’t broken.

Middle and Marshall split two games; there’s no decision there. So, the tiebreaker moves through the standings, team-by-team from the top.

Marshall and Middle were both swept by UAB. Both lost to Louisiana Tech, which moved out of the tie in the first tiebreaker. Both won against ODU, and the Herd’s 2-0 isn’t an edge over middle’s 1-0 because percentages are used, and both are 1.000.

That takes the tiebreaker to sixth place, and Charlotte and UTEP go into Saturday’s games tied at 9-8 in league play. For the Marshall/Middle tiebreaker, the 49ers’ and Miners’ scores Saturday don’t matter – Middle defeated Charlotte and UTEP, while the Herd went 1-1 against the 49ers and lost in El Paso.

Finally, in that scenario, Middle gets the third seed and Marshall No. 4.

*There’s one more … If Tech and Middle lose Saturday and the Herd and Monarchs win, a four-way tie for second place is created at 12-6.

In that four-team breakdown, Tech went 2-1 and gets the No. 2 seed and the Herd is 3-2 and is No. 3. Middle is fourth at 2-2 and Old Dominion fifth at 1-3.

So, what’s the bottom line for the Herd in all of the above?

A No. 4 seed is most likely, if there are no upsets, but the other three teams vying with Marshall for seeds 2-5 play on the road against teams that are all 7-10 and have their own seed tiebreakers to consider.

Rice already won at ODU, 75-66, three weeks ago. FIU was edged at Middle, 67-66, on Feb. 6. Tech and WKU haven’t played this season.

When the final day of the regular season tips at noon Saturday, there will be four two-way ties and a three-way tie in the 14-team C-USA standings. Right now, the only certain seeds are UAB at No. 1 and UTSA at No. 13 – in the de-facto play-in game Tuesday, likely against Florida Atlantic.

About 10 hours later, we’ll finally know who’s where. 
http://www.herdzone.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/030416aaa.html