I have been looking at our schedule for 2005 and I don't think we will be as bad off as many people think. While I don't see us running the league like in the MAC -I don't think we will get blown out either. Here's my reasoning by team.
UCF - 2004 was a horrible year for them and the future doesn't look much better. In the last 2 months they have had 5 people from the 2004 recruiting class quit and 6 from the returning class quit. That's 11 players plus the seniors they lost to graduation. WIN
ECU - Much the same as UCF. Lots of turnover and the hire of a new coaching staff that is average at best. Holtz own father fired him so how does he even get this job? WIN
Southern Miss - Complete new staff but returning some good talent but rebuilding. Will be a tough game but not impossible. Team to watch in a couple years. This game is played in huntington so that is a plus. WIN
SMU - Need I say more. WIN
Tulane - Looks to have a good team but lacking receivers. At tulane won't be fun especially following a long trip to UTEP. This could go either way. EVEN
UTEP - A program on the rise. This will be the toughest CUSA game we play. And it is in texas. EVEN
UAB - Looking strong but I am not sold. WIN
MEMPHIS - Good team that is starting to put together some good recruiting classes. This is a rebuilding year as they lose the starting QB among others. EVEN
Any thoughts. I am saying 8-3 overall.
I agree that we SHOULD win the UCF, ECU, UAB, SMU, and William and Mary games. That's 5 wins I feel really confident about. I think we should win the K State and USM games but you never know what kind of team we're going to have. I'd put Memphis, Tulane, and UTEP as even money. After the thrashing we got the last time in blacksburg, I'm not willing to even come close to calling that one even.
If the Herd gets the 5 wins I think it should, that means it only needs to go 1-4 in the games I classify as "even." I think they should be able to take one from either Memphis, Tulane, UTEP, K State, or S. Miss. A 6-5 record in CUSA WILL get the Herd a bowl game. Maybe a really crappy bowl. But I don't see them having a losing record.
Best (realistic) case scenerio 9-2.
Worst (realistic) case scenerio 5-6
My prediction
W&M-W
K State-L
UCF-W
SMU-W
Va Tech-L
UAB-W
UTEP-L
Tulane-W
USM-L
ECU-W
Memphis-L
I think the herd might go 6-5 with an outside shot a 7-4. Still, considering all the talent we have to replace, a new conference, and a new head coach, I think that is acceptable.