Topic: Possible 6-win teams in the G5, bowl games

[MUonium]

Possible 6-win teams in the G5 (I dont know who might not be eligible for a bowl for various reasons such as not meeting minimum number of FBS opponents or program infraction penalties)

CUSA- possibly 8
4 in the East: MU, WKU, (ODU or CLT) and (FAU or MTSU)
Possibly 4 in the west:  UTSA, UAB, UTEP and UNT if they beat UTSA

SBC- possibly 6
Possibly 4 in the east: App, G. State, Coastal and Troy if they beat G. State
Possibly 2 In the west: Louisiana and S. Alabama if they beat Coastal

AAC (possibly 7)
Houston, Cinci, ECU, SMU, UCF, Tulsa if they beat SMU and MEM if they beat Tulane

MAC- possibly 8
2 in the east: Miami and Kent
Possibly 6 in the west: NIU, CMU, EMU, Toledo, WMU and Ball St. if they beat Buffalo

MWC- possibly 10
4 in the Mountain: Boise, Utah St, Air Force and Wyoming
Possibly 6 in the west: SD State, Fresno, Nevada, San Jose if they beat Fresno and Hawaii if they beat Wyoming

Conference USA Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
Highest-ranked champion from the AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW & Sun Belt will play in a New Year?s Six bowl ? either a College Football Playoff semifinal, Peach Bowl, or Fiesta Bowl.  Conference USA doesn?t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography.
? Bahamas Bowl vs. MAC
? New Mexico Bowl vs. Mountain West
? Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl vs. BYU
? R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl vs. Sun Belt

To be determined among the Group of Five conferences
? Cure Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. Big 12, Pac-12 or Army
? RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army

Conference USA has an affiliation to fill-in if needed
? Camellia Bowl vs. MAC or Sun Belt
? Fenway Bowl vs. ACC or American
? TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl vs. American or SEC
? Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs. ACC, American, SEC
? Myrtle Beach Bowl vs. American, MAC or Sun Belt

[wesnky]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

[herd2win]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

3/4 if the conference is leaving so there are plenty of us to pick on.

[whf]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

I don't understand this comment; there are 9 teams leaving the conference and I don't think the conference would have any teams to fill their bowl commitments without these nine.  Top four choices are clearly UTSA, UAB, WKU and MU.

[The E-Man]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

ESPN controls the bowl games, not CUSA. And besides, Marshall is not the only team existing this conference. If CUSA did have control over bowl games, then there would be a lot of CUSA teams sitting at home that's leaving anyway..

[svherd]

At worst we will be 7-5. We will go to a bowl game. Question is who gets the worst bowl game in the Bahamas.

[pdunn]

Any thoughts about bowl season needs to start with thinking about who is eligible and who can still get eligible.

There are 41 bowl games and 82 slots available.  After Saturday 11/20 there were 72 teams that were bowl eligible.  Going into the last two weeks of the season there are  four pairs of 5-6 teams that play each other meaning that there will be at least 76 teams bowl eligible.  These games are:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6)
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6)
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6)

There are 12 teams that have one remaining game that they must win to become bowl eligible:

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo
San Jose State (5-6) vs. Fresno State
South Alabama (5-6) vs. Coastal Carolina
TCU (5-6) at Iowa State
LSU (5-6) vs. Texas A&M
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane
North Texas (5-6) vs. Texas-San Antonio
Syracuse (5-6) vs. Pittsburgh
Troy (5-6) at Georgia State
Tulsa (5-6) at SMU
Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas

There are two teams that have two remaining games and must win both to be bowl eligible:

California (4-6) at UCLA; vs. Southern California
Southern California (4-6) vs. BYU; @ California

Using base probability, let's say 50% of the 5-6 teams win their last game that gets us to 82 teams eligible.  The two 4-6 teams play each other meaning that at least one is eliminated and one goes to 5-6, so let's say there is a 50% chance that one of these two teams becomes eligible.

That's a projection of "82.5" teams eligible for bowls with 82 slots based just on raw probability.

The maximum number of teams that could be eligible is 89, if all 12 of the 5-6 teams win and one of the 4-6 teams wins out (both cannot win out because they play each other).  Not all of those 5-6 teams are going to win, though

Considering what is there on the schedule, though, I think three of the 5-6 teams win and become eligible and neither of the 4-6 teams make it.  That's 79 teams with 82 slots.

Bottom line: It's very likely this year that there are going to be more bowl slots that eligible teams.  Saying we won't make a bowl because CUSA doesn't have a lot of slots isn't logical and is statistically highly unlikely.
 

[wesnky]

Any thoughts about bowl season needs to start with thinking about who is eligible and who can still get eligible.

There are 41 bowl games and 82 slots available.  After Saturday 11/20 there were 72 teams that were bowl eligible.  Going into the last two weeks of the season there are  four pairs of 5-6 teams that play each other meaning that there will be at least 76 teams bowl eligible.  These games are:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6)
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6)
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6)



There are 12 teams that have one remaining game that they must win to become bowl eligible:

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo
San Jose State (5-6) vs. Fresno State
South Alabama (5-6) vs. Coastal Carolina
TCU (5-6) at Iowa State
LSU (5-6) vs. Texas A&M
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane
North Texas (5-6) vs. Texas-San Antonio
Syracuse (5-6) vs. Pittsburgh
Troy (5-6) at Georgia State
Tulsa (5-6) at SMU
Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas

There are two teams that have two remaining games and must win both to be bowl eligible:

California (4-6) at UCLA; vs. Southern California
Southern California (4-6) vs. BYU; @ California

Using base probability, let's say 50% of the 5-6 teams win their last game that gets us to 82 teams eligible.  The two 4-6 teams play each other meaning that at least one is eliminated and one goes to 5-6, so let's say there is a 50% chance that one of these two teams becomes eligible.

That's a projection of "82.5" teams eligible for bowls with 82 slots based just on raw probability.

The maximum number of teams that could be eligible is 89, if all 12 of the 5-6 teams win and one of the 4-6 teams wins out (both cannot win out because they play each other).  Not all of those 5-6 teams are going to win, though

Considering what is there on the schedule, though, I think three of the 5-6 teams win and become eligible and neither of the 4-6 teams make it.  That's 79 teams with 82 slots.

Bottom line: It's very likely this year that there are going to be more bowl slots that eligible teams.  Saying we won't make a bowl because CUSA doesn't have a lot of slots isn't logical and is statistically highly unlikely.
 

That's slightly more thought than I put into the analysis. ;D ::)

[pdunn]

My guesses for who gets eligible:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)  Old Dominion
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6) Florida Atlantic
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6) Florida
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6) No idea, they are both lousy

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo  Ball State wins and makes it
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane Memphis wins and makes it
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas Sadly, the Pouties win and make it

I'm predicting 79 teams eligible.

[pdunn]

At worst we will be 7-5. We will go to a bowl game. Question is who gets the worst bowl game in the Bahamas.

I'm guessing winner of ODU-Charlotte.

[coalherd]

My guesses for who gets eligible:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)  Old Dominion
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6) Florida Atlantic
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6) Florida
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6) No idea, they are both lousy

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo  Ball State wins and makes it
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane Memphis wins and makes it
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas Sadly, the Pouties win and make it

I'm predicting 79 teams eligible.

Hey, Hey now, pdunn.  Don't you know that the Maryland Twerps beat the Chickeneers earlier this season?  So how can you label them "lousy"?   Mediocre maybe, but "lousy"?  Geeze, give the Neer Killers their due!!  :D

[goherd73]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

Why would CUSA give up any bowl money?

[coalherd]

Possible 6-win teams in the G5 (I dont know who might not be eligible for a bowl for various reasons such as not meeting minimum number of FBS opponents or program infraction penalties)

CUSA- possibly 8
4 in the East: MU, WKU, (ODU or CLT) and (FAU or MTSU)
Possibly 4 in the west:  UTSA, UAB, UTEP and UNT if they beat UTSA

SBC- possibly 6
Possibly 4 in the east: App, G. State, Coastal and Troy if they beat G. State
Possibly 2 In the west: Louisiana and S. Alabama if they beat Coastal

AAC (possibly 7)
Houston, Cinci, ECU, SMU, UCF, Tulsa if they beat SMU and MEM if they beat Tulane

MAC- possibly 8
2 in the east: Miami and Kent
Possibly 6 in the west: NIU, CMU, EMU, Toledo, WMU and Ball St. if they beat Buffalo

MWC- possibly 10
4 in the Mountain: Boise, Utah St, Air Force and Wyoming
Possibly 6 in the west: SD State, Fresno, Nevada, San Jose if they beat Fresno and Hawaii if they beat Wyoming

Conference USA Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
Highest-ranked champion from the AAC, C-USA, MAC, MW & Sun Belt will play in a New Year?s Six bowl ? either a College Football Playoff semifinal, Peach Bowl, or Fiesta Bowl.  Conference USA doesn?t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography.
? Bahamas Bowl vs. MAC
? New Mexico Bowl vs. Mountain West
? Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl vs. BYU
? R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl vs. Sun Belt

To be determined among the Group of Five conferences
? Cure Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl vs. Big 12, Pac-12 or Army
? RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army
? Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl vs. Group of Five or Army

Conference USA has an affiliation to fill-in if needed
? Camellia Bowl vs. MAC or Sun Belt
? Fenway Bowl vs. ACC or American
? TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl vs. American or SEC
? Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl vs. ACC, American, SEC
? Myrtle Beach Bowl vs. American, MAC or Sun Belt

Regarding that middle group of Bowl possibilities, tie ins, MUonium, if the HERD beats WKU this week and is 8-4, and could win the CUSA championship game, I believe ESPN would line up an attractive, at least what they consider a good TV attraction, opponent for the HERD.  If we lose the championship game, but play weel and competitively against a ranked opponent, then I would like to see ESPN/CUSA match the Herd with an opponent like Air Force.  Would be a good game for TV, IMO, and would give us the opportunity for the "Trifecta" against the service academies, since we have already played, and defeated, both the Army and the Navy!!

[SuperAnjario]

We will be sitting on the sidelines.  How could CUSA support putting the Herd in a bowl game.

Completely incorrect.  We already have 7 wins, and draw eyes. 

[wesnky]

Why would CUSA give up any bowl money?

 

CUSA subsidizes the cost for the teams that go to weak pay out bowls and lose money.

[Mako]

Any thoughts about bowl season needs to start with thinking about who is eligible and who can still get eligible.

There are 41 bowl games and 82 slots available.  After Saturday 11/20 there were 72 teams that were bowl eligible.  Going into the last two weeks of the season there are  four pairs of 5-6 teams that play each other meaning that there will be at least 76 teams bowl eligible.  These games are:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6)
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6)
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6)

There are 12 teams that have one remaining game that they must win to become bowl eligible:

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo
San Jose State (5-6) vs. Fresno State
South Alabama (5-6) vs. Coastal Carolina
TCU (5-6) at Iowa State
LSU (5-6) vs. Texas A&M
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane
North Texas (5-6) vs. Texas-San Antonio
Syracuse (5-6) vs. Pittsburgh
Troy (5-6) at Georgia State
Tulsa (5-6) at SMU
Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas

There are two teams that have two remaining games and must win both to be bowl eligible:

California (4-6) at UCLA; vs. Southern California
Southern California (4-6) vs. BYU; @ California

Using base probability, let's say 50% of the 5-6 teams win their last game that gets us to 82 teams eligible.  The two 4-6 teams play each other meaning that at least one is eliminated and one goes to 5-6, so let's say there is a 50% chance that one of these two teams becomes eligible.

That's a projection of "82.5" teams eligible for bowls with 82 slots based just on raw probability.

The maximum number of teams that could be eligible is 89, if all 12 of the 5-6 teams win and one of the 4-6 teams wins out (both cannot win out because they play each other).  Not all of those 5-6 teams are going to win, though

Considering what is there on the schedule, though, I think three of the 5-6 teams win and become eligible and neither of the 4-6 teams make it.  That's 79 teams with 82 slots.

Bottom line: It's very likely this year that there are going to be more bowl slots that eligible teams.  Saying we won't make a bowl because CUSA doesn't have a lot of slots isn't logical and is statistically highly unlikely.
 

Oh come on.  Seriously.  Who brings facts and logic to an argument on the internet?  Sheesh.   ;D ;D

[The Casino]

Any thoughts about bowl season needs to start with thinking about who is eligible and who can still get eligible.

There are 41 bowl games and 82 slots available.  After Saturday 11/20 there were 72 teams that were bowl eligible.  Going into the last two weeks of the season there are  four pairs of 5-6 teams that play each other meaning that there will be at least 76 teams bowl eligible.  These games are:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6)
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6)
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6)

There are 12 teams that have one remaining game that they must win to become bowl eligible:

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo
San Jose State (5-6) vs. Fresno State
South Alabama (5-6) vs. Coastal Carolina
TCU (5-6) at Iowa State
LSU (5-6) vs. Texas A&M
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane
North Texas (5-6) vs. Texas-San Antonio
Syracuse (5-6) vs. Pittsburgh
Troy (5-6) at Georgia State
Tulsa (5-6) at SMU
Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas

There are two teams that have two remaining games and must win both to be bowl eligible:

California (4-6) at UCLA; vs. Southern California
Southern California (4-6) vs. BYU; @ California

Using base probability, let's say 50% of the 5-6 teams win their last game that gets us to 82 teams eligible.  The two 4-6 teams play each other meaning that at least one is eliminated and one goes to 5-6, so let's say there is a 50% chance that one of these two teams becomes eligible.

That's a projection of "82.5" teams eligible for bowls with 82 slots based just on raw probability.

The maximum number of teams that could be eligible is 89, if all 12 of the 5-6 teams win and one of the 4-6 teams wins out (both cannot win out because they play each other).  Not all of those 5-6 teams are going to win, though

Considering what is there on the schedule, though, I think three of the 5-6 teams win and become eligible and neither of the 4-6 teams make it.  That's 79 teams with 82 slots.

Bottom line: It's very likely this year that there are going to be more bowl slots that eligible teams.  Saying we won't make a bowl because CUSA doesn't have a lot of slots isn't logical and is statistically highly unlikely.
 

Bump to the top, great stuff

[pdunn]

Any thoughts about bowl season needs to start with thinking about who is eligible and who can still get eligible.

There are 41 bowl games and 82 slots available.  After Saturday 11/20 there were 72 teams that were bowl eligible.  Going into the last two weeks of the season there are  four pairs of 5-6 teams that play each other meaning that there will be at least 76 teams bowl eligible.  These games are:

Charlotte (5-6) at Old Dominion (5-6)
Florida Atlantic (5-6) vs. Middle Tennessee (5-6)
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (5-6)
Maryland (5-6) at Rutgers (5-6)

There are 12 teams that have one remaining game that they must win to become bowl eligible:

Ball State (5-6) vs. Buffalo
San Jose State (5-6) vs. Fresno State
South Alabama (5-6) vs. Coastal Carolina
TCU (5-6) at Iowa State
LSU (5-6) vs. Texas A&M
Memphis (5-6) vs. Tulane
North Texas (5-6) vs. Texas-San Antonio
Syracuse (5-6) vs. Pittsburgh
Troy (5-6) at Georgia State
Tulsa (5-6) at SMU
Virginia Tech (5-6) at Virginia
West Virginia (5-6) at Kansas

There are two teams that have two remaining games and must win both to be bowl eligible:

California (4-6) at UCLA; vs. Southern California
Southern California (4-6) vs. BYU; @ California

Using base probability, let's say 50% of the 5-6 teams win their last game that gets us to 82 teams eligible.  The two 4-6 teams play each other meaning that at least one is eliminated and one goes to 5-6, so let's say there is a 50% chance that one of these two teams becomes eligible.

That's a projection of "82.5" teams eligible for bowls with 82 slots based just on raw probability.

The maximum number of teams that could be eligible is 89, if all 12 of the 5-6 teams win and one of the 4-6 teams wins out (both cannot win out because they play each other).  Not all of those 5-6 teams are going to win, though

Considering what is there on the schedule, though, I think three of the 5-6 teams win and become eligible and neither of the 4-6 teams make it.  That's 79 teams with 82 slots.

Bottom line: It's very likely this year that there are going to be more bowl slots that eligible teams.  Saying we won't make a bowl because CUSA doesn't have a lot of slots isn't logical and is statistically highly unlikely.
 

72 teams were eligible before this week's games.

Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Maryland, Ball State, LSU, North Texas, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Memphis and West Virginia became eligible.

There were several (minor) upsets: VaTech over Virginia, Tulsa over SMU, LSU over aTm, and North Texas over UTSA.

California and USC both lost last night and won't be eligible.

There are 83 eligible teams for 82 slots.  No more teams can get to six wins at this point.

So one bowl eligible team is going to get "punked" this year. 

[coalherd]

72 teams were eligible before this week's games.

Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Florida, Maryland, Ball State, LSU, North Texas, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Memphis and West Virginia became eligible.

There were several (minor) upsets: VaTech over Virginia, Tulsa over SMU, LSU over aTm, and North Texas over UTSA.

California and USC both lost last night and won't be eligible.

There are 83 eligible teams for 82 slots.  No more teams can get to six wins at this point.

So one bowl eligible team is going to get "punked" this year.

Not to worry, pdun.  The "Big Boys" and The Commish down in Frisco just LUV the Herd!  They REALLY do!!

[pdunn]

Not to worry, pdun.  The "Big Boys" and The Commish down in Frisco just LUV the Herd!  They REALLY do!!

Heh, I don't doubt it.  We'll get a chance to go because we draw and will at least sell a few tickets.  Personally I hope we wind up in Birmingham for purely selfish reasons, I can drive down and back the day of the game.  But somehow I guess we get one of the Florida bowls, again.

But man this year feels a lot like the year we backed into the Fort Worth Bowl (2003?) and that turned out to be the most miserable bowl experience ever.

[coalherd]

I look for us to play a 6-6 or so MAC foe:  Kent, CMU, EMU, or whichever one of those directional teams are eligible.

[pdunn]

I look for us to play a 6-6 or so MAC foe:  Kent, CMU, EMU, or whichever one of those directional teams are eligible.

You're probably right, Coal.