Topic: Annual ESPN Matchup Predictor for football

[IM4DHERD]

Albany - 91.4% Chance of MU to winning

@ ECU - 52.6% Chance of ECU winning

Va Tech - 58.6% Chance of MU winning

ODU - 77.6% Chance of MU winning

@ NC State - 77.2% Chance of NC State winning

@ GA State - 52.2% Chance of MU winning

JMU - 69.8% Chance of MU winning

@ Coastal - 53.1% of MU winning

@ App - 52% Chance of App winning

GA Southern - 68.6% chance of MU winning

@ So AL - 51.8% chance of MU winning

Ark State - 73.7% chance of MU winning

9-3 regular season

They predict App being undefeated in-conference.

[svherd]

Other than NCST, saying we have a decent shot to win the rest. No way App wins the division. They lost their QB, some WR's and some good D starters. jmho.

[gochneaur645]

Here's what 10,000 sims looks like with those percentages:

12-0:	0.10%
11-1:	1.13%
10-2:	5.10%
9-3:	13.58%
8-4:	22.15%
7-5:	24.41%
6-6:	18.75%
5-7:	10.38%
4-8:	3.34%
3-9:	0.91%
2-10:	0.13%
1-11:	0.02%
0-12:	0.00%

Note that 7-5 is the most likely outcome even though this thing favors us in 9 games. That's because we're basically coin flip "favorites" in 4 of those predictions.

Of course, I wouldn't trust any predictor that thinks Albany has anything close to a 9% chance of winning or one that thinks App State is better than South Bama.

[puma]

So basically... 1 L and 5 toss ups. Depending on how the toss ups fall (and assuming no WTF implosions), that means 9-3 or 8-4.

The toughest thing I see on the schedule is that the most difficult opponents are all away games. I believe there's also a 5 week stretch with 4 away games. Every game should be winnable but it's going to be tough.

Maybe I'm overly optimistic but I think 9-3 or 10-2 are reasonable goals.