Topic: NMSU/Colorado Total Points Prediction

[RASports]

NMSU/Colorado Total Points Prediction
 
Official 1 UNIT Play courtesy of Right Angle Sports (www.handicapper.net)
 
Line current as of Friday at 9:35am Pacific.
 
New Mexico State at Colorado (OVER 53) - 7:00pm Pacific
Buffalo senior QB Joel Klatt has thrown for over 5,000 yards in the past two seasons, but last year was clearly a disappointment.  His numbers were down from his sophomore year and he threw 4 more interceptions than touchdowns.  The major reason was a depleted group of receivers that were hurt by injuries and did not play well even when healthy (39 dropped passes).  This year 5 of his top 6 pass catchers are back and 8 different players had at least one reception in the season opening win vs Colorado State.  The passing game still needs work as Klatt was sacked 5 times and threw one interception.  This game will provide Klatt with the opportunity to have some fun and build some much needed confidence.  Sophomore RB Hugh Charles made his first start last week and showed he has big play ability.  He averaged 6.7 yards per carry on the ground and 11.3 yards per reception for 135 yards all purpose yards.  The offensive line is said to be very athletic this year which will enable them to run misdirection plays for the first time since 2001.  Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson said that CU only used about 30% of the offensive playbook vs Colorado State.  He added that the team blew many opportunities for big plays and will be hungry to capitalize next game out.
 
New Mexico State is an over team in its purest form.  First year head coach Hal Mumme is best known for his days at Kentucky.  His "Air Raid" offense put the ball in the air 62 times last week vs UTEP.  The sheer number of passes can lead to several interceptions, first year starting QB Gill threw 3 in his debut.  Mumme's philosophy holds little regard for time of possession, they are capable of quick three and outs, in fact 10 of their 16 drives last week consisted of 5 plays or less.  He also does not hesitate to go for it on 4th downs, converting just 2 of 5 vs UTEP.  These tendencies put all types of extra burden on their own defense as they end up on the field much longer than normal and often times in bad field position.  Playing in a normal system, last years defense gave up 32.3ppg.  The stats from last weeks game suggest that the NMSU defense did well holding UTEP to just over 300 total yards.  However, UTEP lost two defensive line starters to injury in the first half and clearly were playing conservatively with mostly reserves in the second half.  UTEP scored easily on 5 of their first 7 possessions and led 31-0 at the break.  Things can and will get ugly fast if the NMSU offense is not clicking.  Mumme proved last week that regardless of the situation, they will keep throwing it.  The Aggies scored all 17 of their points vs UTEP in the final seven minutes of play.
 
With an offense designed to run the ball, NMSU games still averaged 57.1ppg last year.  In their last 5 games vs BCS conference opponents, the average total has been 63.2.  Mumme's presence should not lower either average.  NMSU only averaged 56 plays per game last year.  In Mumme's first game they ran 86 plays!  Under Gary Barnett, Colorado games average a total of 59.5ppg vs non-BCS teams.  This total is at least 5 points off and makes for nice value on the over.
 
RAS Official Play:  OVER 53  1 UNIT
 
Get the rest of this weekend's official plays w/analysis at NO CHARGE, simply visit www.handicapper.net and join the mailing list!
 
Good luck!

[HerdZone]

Why do we care, someone move this off the front board.