Topic: 0/3's way too early preseason prognostications for the new CUSA

[ought-three]

  With all of the new teams, this year's data was a real pain to comprehend. I made a couple minor tweaks to the formula this year. I did not include the stats of all FBS teams, only the subset of FBS opponents directly connected to this year's CUSA. Given that each team's output is relative to how they would perform against the imaginary "Median U" , the set did not necessarily need to be complete - only adequate. Being an amateur analyst, I don't have the resources or time to make every possible connection.  I also quit factoring in home field advantage. The teams that have great home field advantage are usually great teams to begin with. Home field advantage isn't much help to a team that sucks. Finally, I dropped the probability stuff. However they fell, they fell - regardless of how close the margin.

  Again, I am only reporting the spreadsheet output. Team's projected performance is based on returning starters and change in schedule difficulty. Then they theoretically play "Median U" and either win (+), tie (0), or lose (-). Based on their relative performances, I rank the teams. I'm fairly pleased with how the remaining CUSA are placed, but I'm at a loss on some of the old Sun Belt schools. I feel fairly good about where MU is, though I'd personally put us at 7-5 or 8-4. Regardless of my feelings, bowl eligibility seems almost certain. Here is how the formula has CUSA for 2013-2014:

                                       Conf      Overall   
                                      W   L   W   L
(W)Tulsa                   -2.59    8   0   11   1
(E) East Carolina           -3.55    7   1   9   3
(E) Marshall                   -3.98    6   2   9   3
(W) North Texas           -5.36    7   1   10   2
(W) Rice                   -6.25      6   2   7   5
(W) Tulane                   -6.62    4   4   7   5
(E) Southern Miss.   -7.92    5   3   6   6
(E) UAB                   -8.45    4   4   5   7
(W) Louisiana Tech   -10.0    3   5   4   8
(W) UTEP                   -10.16   3   5   5   7
(E) Middle Tenn.           -10.99   2   6   2   10
(W) UTSA                   -11.10   0   8   1   11
(E) FIU                   -11.35   1   7   2   10
(E) Fla. Atlantic           -12.59   0   8   1   11

  Tulsa will beat ECU for the CUSA title. Marshall will rank 3rd in the conference and will head to the Beef O' Brady's Bowl against somebody from the new AAC - probably an old CUSA foe.
Our Schedule:
Miami-OH (Win)
G-W (Win)
@Ohio (Win)
@Va Tech. (Loss)
UTSA (Win)
@FAU (Win)
@MTSU (Win)
SoMiss (Win)
UAB (Win)
@Tulsa (Loss)
@FIU (Win)
ECU (Loss) - I know, you hate me. It's what the output says, I'm just the messenger  8)

Final record: 9-3 (6-2)

  The CUSA is significantly weaker than before. Going back, CUSA usually averaged about -3 in my formula. This year, it averages -8. That is the primary reason - in my opinion - our record will improve by so much. It is probably coming at the right time for everyone: Doc, Hamrick, and the Herd Faithful.

So, there it is. I meant to get this out sooner, but I'm busy writing a different article. I covet your feedback.

[Scottyo614]

How did Middle Tenn fall that poorly?

Thanks for the write up, interesting what stats think of us.

[svherd]

I was wondering the same thing. MTSU should fare much better than that.

I will tell you why we beat ECU -

1. Its senior day for us
2. A lot will be riding on this game
3. Its a home game
4. Its in November - hopefully it will be cold.
5. The week before us, ECU plays  NC State - they will come in flat after an emotional, hard fought win or loss against the Wolfpack.

jmo.

[BHFIOHIO]

right. Teams that suck dont get much outa home field. We dont suck. Just ask Houston, Rice and El Paso that have had our number in Tx how many they collectively have at the Joan. I'll make it easy. Zero.

[HerdnClt]

If we can beat Ohio and ECU. This could be a very fine year.

[BHFIOHIO]

if I read that right it says 0 and 4 for MTSU OOC......dude they have Western Carolina and Memphis. Figure they win both of those.

[Garbanjo]

I'll play:

Miami-OH (Win)
G-W (Win)
@Ohio (Win)
@Va Tech. (Loss)
UTSA (Win)
@FAU (Win)
@MTSU (Win)
SoMiss (Win)
UAB (Win)
@Tulsa (Loss)
@FIU (Win)
ECU (Win)

I've said 8-4 is the floor for this season. This prediction says 10-2. Either way, let's hope I'm right and happy times return to Herd football THIS season.

[BHFIOHIO]

giddyup

[BHFIOHIO]

and if you compare the Herd schedule week by week with last yr you will find we have a one game advantage. After ECU and Tulsa are gone it is a diff ballgame. We play both of them this yr. Ten yrs from now with ODU, Charlotte and WKU who knows?

[carolinaherdfan]

BH, Miami will come to town to play us tough.

[BHFIOHIO]

no doubt but we shouldnt need the revenge factor. They lost their QB, best receiver from a lower level MAC team plus others. We have better circumstances plus home field. We might not roll em like everybody would like but I figure we win. If its close we will lose at OU.

[SuperAnjario]

I couldn't disagree with you anymore strongly about home field.  It's REALLY HARD to win on the road for all teams except very good to elite ones.  How many times have we gone & lost to some team like BG, Rice, Akron, UAB, etc.?  A whole bunch of times.  Also, teams absolutely don't play their best in Huntington most of the time.

I actually think your reasoning is flip-flopped.  Playing on the road has a huge effect on bad to mediocre teams.  The great teams are not affected as much when they play on the road, but home field advantage is very real.  Great teams feed even more off their home crowd as well, so I agree with you on that point.  However, home field has a massive effect on average teams.

The only reason ECU beat us last year was because it was on the road, IMO.  Not taking anything away from them; they won fair & square, but that result is different in Huntington by a bunch.

[vandalia]

i'll call four road losses at ou, vpi, mtsu and tu.

doc has yet to beat a mac team on the road.

ecu and one of the florida schools are tossups.

usm could be a bugaboo.

vandalia.

[BHFIOHIO]

I couldn't disagree with you anymore strongly about home field.  It's REALLY HARD to win on the road for all teams except very good to elite ones.  How many times have we gone & lost to some team like BG, Rice, Akron, UAB, etc.?  A whole bunch of times.  Also, teams absolutely don't play their best in Huntington most of the time.

I actually think your reasoning is flip-flopped.  Playing on the road has a huge effect on bad to mediocre teams.  The great teams are not affected as much when they play on the road, but home field advantage is very real.  Great teams feed even more off their home crowd as well, so I agree with you on that point.  However, home field has a massive effect on average teams.

The only reason ECU beat us last year was because it was on the road, IMO.  Not taking anything away from them; they won fair & square, but that result is different in Huntington by a bunch.

Uhhh.....I dont know what you're talking about. I said home field would be a factor vs Miami.

[BHFIOHIO]

i'll call four road losses at ou, vpi, mtsu and tu.

doc has yet to beat a mac team on the road.

ecu and one of the florida schools are tossups.

usm could be a bugaboo.

vandalia.

USM who we tore a new one at their place last yr? Want to watch your a$$ sitting the fence ...those splinters can be horrible.

[vandalia]

USM who we tore a new one at their place last yr? Want to watch your a$$ sitting the fence ...those splinters can be horrible.

there's no call for this vitriol over a difference of opinion.

vandalia.

[extragreen]

In 2011 we beat UAB by FORTY FIVE POINTS.
In 2012 they beat us by seven points, and were beating us 31-7 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.  

[BHFIOHIO]

that was there with Rip....this is here with Heater and 4 or 5 new diff makers....watch those splinters

[extragreen]

that was there with Rip....this is here with Heater and 4 or 5 new diff makers....watch those splinters

You may end up picking them out of your teeth.

[BHFIOHIO]

splinters are for fence sitters.......I have no worries about splinters....a$$ or teeth....I am on record predicting bigger things than a loss to USM at home.....trolls like you are another matter

[extragreen]

splinters are for fence sitters.......I have no worries about splinters....a$$ or teeth....I am on record predicting bigger things than a loss to USM at home.....trolls like you are another matter

I imagine you and the other super koolaid guys are quite accustomed to picking those splinters out of your teeth.

[ought-three]

How did Middle Tenn fall that poorly?

Thanks for the write up, interesting what stats think of us.

I honestly have no idea. I don't think their schedule is significantly harder, they seem to have a large number of starters and key players back. The only thing I can perceive is that it doesn't like how the OFF/DEF ratio compares to CUSA teams. The former Sun Belt teams all fell very weak in this run - it is something I'm personally worried about until the data levels back out in a few years after all of this shifting.

I was wondering the same thing. MTSU should fare much better than that.

I will tell you why we beat ECU -

1. Its senior day for us
2. A lot will be riding on this game
3. Its a home game
4. Its in November - hopefully it will be cold.
5. The week before us, ECU plays  NC State - they will come in flat after an emotional, hard fought win or loss against the Wolfpack.

jmo.

I don't disagree with a word of what you're saying. The spreadsheet does not have those factors and, therefore, can't draw any conclusions based on them. I hope you're right, I'm a little tired of those scalawags!

[SuperAnjario]

Uhhh.....I dont know what you're talking about. I said home field would be a factor vs Miami.

I was talking to the OP, not you.

[ought-three]

I was talking to the OP, not you.

Sorry I missed your reply. I did, however, address the issue of home field advantage in this thread: http://www.herdfans.com/12thman/index.php?topic=70634.0

Perhaps we can carry the debate on there. It's easy to pick out a few instances that fit your theory, but you have to look at the whole picture to see what's really going on.