Not my best year predicting the conference (too many new teams, with little head-to-head data)
Final record: 9-3 (6-2)
The CUSA is significantly weaker than before. Going back, CUSA usually averaged about -3 in my formula. This year, it averages -8. That is the primary reason - in my opinion - our record will improve by so much. It is probably coming at the right time for everyone: Doc, Hamrick, and the Herd Faithful.
I'll give myself an A- on this section. The schedule wasn't the WHOLE reason we improved. We're playing pretty good ball these last few weeks.
Conf Overall
W L W L
(W)Tulsa -2.59 8 0 11 1
(E) East Carolina -3.55 7 1 9 3
(E) Marshall -3.98 6 2 9 3
(W) North Texas -5.36 7 1 10 2
(W) Rice -6.25 6 2 7 5
(W) Tulane -6.62 4 4 7 5
(E) Southern Miss. -7.92 5 3 6 6
(E) UAB -8.45 4 4 5 7
(W) Louisiana Tech -10.0 3 5 4 8
(W) UTEP -10.16 3 5 5 7
(E) Middle Tenn. -10.99 2 6 2 10
(W) UTSA -11.10 0 8 1 11
(E) FIU -11.35 1 7 2 10
(E) Fla. Atlantic -12.59 0 8 1 11
I just have to eat this. Tulsa WAY under-performed, though I am pleased to see that North Texas, Rice, and Tulane were ranked among the top in the West. I was really scratching my head on that one initially. Southern Miss underachieved
bigtime.
Some questioned the placement of MTSU. Clearly, they were better than my 2-10 prediction. The same could be said for FAU and UTSA. FIU was about where I figured. GRADE: C-
Miami-OH (Win)
G-W (Win)
@Ohio (Win)
@Va Tech. (Loss)
UTSA (Win)
@FAU (Win)
@MTSU (Win)
SoMiss (Win)
UAB (Win)
@Tulsa (Loss)
@FIU (Win)
ECU (Loss) - I know, you hate me. It's what the output says, I'm just the messenger.
I got the actual number right, but we traded the Tulsa and ECU losses for Ohio and MTSU. The same basic thing happened last year, when I had us finishing 5-7. That year we won one we weren't supposed to and lost one we weren't supposed to. GRADE: B-
svherd gets the prize, though:
I was wondering the same thing. MTSU should fare much better than that.
I will tell you why we beat ECU -
1. Its senior day for us
2. A lot will be riding on this game
3. Its a home game
4. Its in November - hopefully it will be cold.
5. The week before us, ECU plays NC State - they will come in flat after an emotional, hard fought win or loss against the Wolfpack.
jmo.