Topic: 0/3 Sims Presents the St. Petersburg Bowl: MU vs. UCONN

[ought-three]

The big day is near and it is time to dig into the much-anticipated St. Pete Bowl. Let's get right to the numbers:

Vegas: Marshall -4 1/2
Sagarin: Marshall by 5
Massey: Marshall (79%) 21 - 14 (21%) Connecticut
ESPN FPI: Marshall 69.7%
*Random Randy: Marshall
0/3 Sims: The Herd wins 6,848 of the sims at an average score of 22-17. MU's raw probability is 81%.
* I added a random game picker to see how each system compares to picking against a coin flip.

   Marshall is basically a high-confidence pick to win a close, low-scoring game. I think this game is going to come down to which offense shows up. The Herd has shown flashes of brilliance against a modest schedule, but was a mere 1-3 against their opponents who went on to be bowl eligible. That stat concerns me greatly because UCONN played a significantly tougher schedule that included three ranked teams (Navy, Houston, and Temple) - four if you include Missouri's ranking at the time they played. Perhaps the difference for us is that our offense has shown at times while theirs has yet to. The majority pick as of this post has gone 5-3 (63%) as of this post, while the unanimous pick has gone 2-0, pending the BGSU game result.

I'm feeling good about our chances, but Doc and the boys have to deliver. We're building a nice bowl streak under this coach and I would sure like to see the hardware keep coming to Huntington.

GO HERD!

[herd2win]

Thanks...I see this as very close and mistakes or turnovers will determine the winner.