Topic: Translating the UConn-Marshall Advanced Stats Preview

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Before delving too deeply into the ratings themselves, it's important to understand the methodology behind the unique S&P+ system. S&P+ takes into consideration five factors statistically shown to be crucial to winning games - explosiveness, efficiency, finishing drives, field position, and turnover margin - and leverages them for an easy basis of comparison. For the Saint Petersburg Bowl's prediction, each of these categories were compared to one another.

In this game, both defenses should be able to stop their opposing offenses - as it is clear that the defenses are far superior. However, it should be noted that Marshall's offense is slightly better than UConn's offense when it comes to efficiency across the board. Marshall also seems to be more adept at scoring in the first half (ratings 64 and 55) than in the second (ratings 103 and 125). This could show an unwillingness to adjust from half to half - or, possibly, the ability for defenses to figure out some keys to Marshall's skills over the course of a game.

http://www.theuconnblog.com/2015/12/23/10649588/translating-the-uconn-marshall-advanced-stats-preview

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Scouting Report: Marshall Defense

Marshall's offense is decent, but its defense is superb.

This season, the Thundering Herd have a nasty, experienced crew of players, some of whom may have pro aspirations. For UConn to move the ball and compete with Marshall, they will need to penetrate this tough, stalwart unit.

The Front Seven

Marshall's defensive success is predicated on the pressure that it is able to generate from its front seven. The Thundering Herd trot out a super athletic defensive front that is able to free up linebackers to make plays in the backfield, utilizing a complimentary scheme much like UConn's.

On the line of scrimmage, Marshall's best player is edge rusher Gary Thompson, a 6-foot-1, 252-pound bowling ball with the ability to get linemen off balance and then race through them, penetrating into the backfield. Thompson leads his team with eight sacks and eleven tackles for loss on the year and is a force to be reckoned on an every down basis. While Thompson is the best of Marshall's front four, his opposite number, freshman Ryan Bee, is an exciting 6-foot-7 talent who has three sacks in his debut season. His long arms and frame make him a draft prospect to watch in the future.

While the edge players are complimentary in terms of body type, the two defensive tackles for Marshall are very similar. Both Steve Dillon and Jarquez Samuel are redshirt seniors who are each about 6-foot-4 and 285 pounds. They win battles at the line of scrimmage similarly, too - strong initial burst and hand technique. While neither of these players are as good as, say, Tanzil Smart of Tulane, they do have the energy and power to shock UConn's weak interior. The Huskies have had major issue with defensive tackle pressure this year and will have to protect starting quarterback Bryant Shirreffs adequately if they are to have a chance in this game.

In the linebacking corps, Marshall houses their most prolific tackler in senior Evan McKelvey, who's hard-nosed style makes him seem like a poor man's Tyler Matakevich. He is complemented by D.J. Hunter, a small 6-foot backer with pass rushing burst, and Devontre'a Tyler, a bulky run stopper in the middle of the defense. It should be noted that Tyler often comes out in passing situations for Marshall's nickel and dime packages, leaving Hunter and McKelvey as blitzers and flat cover men.


The Secondary


Marshall has a good deal of talent in their defensive backfield, and it all starts with their safeties. Tiquan Lang and Taj Letman are perfect counterparts - the smaller Lang can handle any coverage responsibilities and Letman, who may be drafted come April if he runs his rumored 4.4 40 yard dash at 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, packs some physical punch. The flexibility of these two safeties allows for the cornerbacks to play a vibrant mix of coverages, although they mostly tend to play based on matchups.

Marshall has four cornerbacks that are capable, in tandem, of matching up with any threat posed by another team. In 6-foot tall Keith Baxter, they have a big player. In Corey Tindal and Rodney Allen, they have a great man coverage duo that can both come on blitzes in the blink of an eye. And in the feisty Antavis Rowe, Marshall has someone who is capable of slot responsibilities. This group will surely give UConn problems come the bowl game.



The Gameplan - How To Attack Marshall

Marshall's defense is extremely pressure-heavy and strong, but UConn can definitely manage to eke out an attack if they are able to control the game flow and execute effectively.

First of all, the guards need to play well and line calls have to be made smoothly. Marshall has multiple players capable of bending the edge, and they will assuredly get penetration thanks to their bevy of blitz packages. It's on the center and quarterback to recognize pre-snap tells and make the right line calls. This will help Shirreffs get into a rhythm.

Next, the Huskies need to figure out ways to get Arkeel Newsome involved in the offense. Given his lack of size, it might be smart to pit various fullbacks and tight ends against Marshall's week side linebacker, Hunter, and run some pulls toward him. This worked extremely well early on against Houston. Newsome's shiftiness can also be used successfully on interior runs and traps. If Newsome can average 4 yards a carry, that would bode well for the Huskies.

The key player in this game might be Alec Bloom, the sophomore tight end who seems so physically talented but still makes bad mental mistakes on a game-by-game basis. Marshall has a good amount of speed in the flats, but Bloom's size will give him mismatches against their smaller linebackers and defensive backs. The Huskies should look to run him up the seam on routes and let him get opportunities against smaller players. All year long, Bloom has flashed elite, NFL quality physical traits. This game will be a major test for him to see if he can hang on to the ball a bit more.

Finally, the receivers need to also step up. While there are certain circumstances beyond his control preventing him from breaking out, Noel Thomas has an opportunity in this game to showcase his talent. He will have work to do against the solid Marshall cornerbacks, but he needs to average 7-10 yards every time the ball is in his hands. Opposite Thomas, Hergy Mayala and Tyraiq Beals have opportunities to step up, too. If one of the receivers can make some big plays, it would really take the pressure off of Shirreffs and the defense. Then, maybe, UConn will have a shot against Marshall.

https://connecticut.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1837806

[biggreenarms]

Scouting Report: Marshall Offense

After scrapping their way to a hard-fought 6-6 record, the UConn Huskies will be rewarded by a matchup in the St. Petersburg Bowl against a Conference USA foe, the Marshall Thundering Herd, on the day after Christmas. The Herd went 9-3 this year, ending up third in their conference en route to this showdown. Over the next few weeks, as the Husky players prepare on the field to face Doc Holliday's squad from Huntington, West Virginia, we will be analyzing from the sidelines to try and figure out how the Huskies can best attack this solid squad on both sides of the ball.


The Quarterback

Marshall had a year that exceeded expectations, specifically due to their efficiency and success on long drives and in the red zone. The Thundering Herd had a fairly middling offense for most of the season, but their penchant for being efficient served them well. Due to strong defense and special teams play, Marshall's average starting position was at their own 33 yard line this year, 10th best in the country. Their consistent passing game, supplemented by an occasional backfield spark, helped carry them to victory multiple times this season.

Replacing former star quarterback Rakeem Cato was a daunting proposition for Marshall to start the year, but freshman - and South Florida native - Chase Litton stepped up when his team needed him. The 6 foot 6 quarterback passed for 2,387 yards, 22 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year, making plays when necessary but also taking care of the ball. Litton is a fairly prototypical passer, but he does show the ability to scramble if necessary, and picked up 132 yards on the ground this season.

From a tape perspective, Litton showcases some elite arm strength and ball placement, but his release is a bit prolonged, and strong pass rushers should be able to force him to hold the ball and make questionable decisions. Litton is not the most explosive thrower of the football, either - Marshall was only 95th in the country this season in terms of points per play. If Litton is able to dissect the UConn defense too easily, it could be a long day for the Husky secondary.



The Weapons and Line

Litton's top receiver is Davonte Allen, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound senior wide receiver who should run around a 4.5 40 at Pro Days this year. Allen showcases the ability to separate and make plays, both while the ball is in the air and after the catch. Litton does show a propensity to force the ball to Allen, as evidenced by his 98 targets on the year. Litton has a bevy of other options to consider - whether it be slot man Deandre Reaves, big guy Deon-Tay McManus, or 6-foot-3, 233-pound tight end Ryan Yurachek.

Mike Gwinn, the site manager of HerdNation.com, thinks that Reaves could also be an X-factor in the kick return game thanks to his explosiveness. "Reaves has special speed," he said. "He is 5th in kick return yards and has returned 2 KOs and a punt for TDs this season."

In the backfield, the Thundering Herd will be without their star runner, Devon Johnson, who missed the past six games for Marshall. The burly 6-foot-1, 245-pounder came into the season with Doak Walker Award aspirations but had issues finding his groove behind the team's makeshift offensive line. With Johnson on the bench, the Thundering Herd will attempt to manufacture a rushing game with the likes of senior Remi Watson, converted wide receiver Hyleck Foster, and freshman Keion Davis.

Marshall's offensive line is fairly mediocre in the run game, although they have some tenacity when Litton goes back to pass the ball. The team lost their best lineman, right tackle Clint Van Horn, to a torn pectoral in the third game of the year. However, they have fought back, with the likes of sophomores A.J. Addison and Sandley Jean-Felix stepping in and doing a decent job. Marshall can definitely be attacked by the solid front four of the Huskies, but given their quick strike offense, UConn will need to make big plays quickly to affect Marshall when they have the ball.


The Gameplan - How To Quell The Herd

UConn should know their enemy fairly well, as Marshall head coach Doc Holliday and offensive coordinator Bill Legg employ many of the similar tactics that the Houston Cougars sought to implement against the Huskies. They will try to spread the field out and make hay in the horizontal passing game, occasionally taking a shot down the field if they can get a positive matchup.

Gwinn put it succinctly when prompted on this subject. "The Herd's offense is pretty simple," he said. "Just a handful of the same plays ran out of different formations."

The one thing that makes this team potentially more dangerous than the Cougars is the size of McManus and Yurachek, both of whom could be bad match ups for UConn's linebackers and safeties. Reeves' speed will also bear watching. It will be incumbent on the likes of pass coverage specialist Vontae Diggs and nickel back Ellis Marder to be competitive and wrap up when tackling these threats.

The Huskies will also need to generate pressure with their front four, occasionally mixing a blitz or two in to keep the young offensive line honest. Luke Carrezola and Kenton Adeyemi will be tasked with holding their edges, while the interior players will face smaller guards and centers that will look to cut block them. It will be important for Julian Campenni, Mikal Myers, and Foley Fatukasi to maintain their leverage - if they can, there's a chance for the Huskies to dominate the interior.

In coverage, UConn will probably look to play off-man coverage, a tactic that has worked surprisingly well this year. Jhavon Williams will cover one side of the field, Jamar Summers will take the other, and the team's cadre of linebackers and safeties can fill in the gaps. The Huskies will try to keep plays in front of them and wrap up Marshall's skill players when they have the ball in their hands, as well as force Litton into some bad passes into traffic. If their disguising is effective, the Huskies could be in good shape on this side of the ball.

https://connecticut.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1835004&PT=4&PR=2