Topic: Dusted off the simulator for the upcoming "Hokie Bowl" in Blacksburg.

[ought-three]

Barring any major roster or coaching changes, it is shaping up to be a fairly competitive game next week! Home field advantage is making most of the computers lean toward Tech, of course.

Sagarin   VT by 4.5
Massey   MU (48%) 27 - 28 (52%) VT
0/3 Sims   VT wins 5,794 of the simulations at an average score of 27-25. VT has a raw probability of 62%
ESPN FPI   VT 69.8%

I'm approaching this like it is our bowl game. Right now, projections have us against Hawaii, Boise St. (unlikely), Wake Forest, and Appalachian State. Want bulletin board material? Most projections have VT in a bowl game too, which means they're assuming Tech will beat us. These projections say that is not a guarantee at all.

It may come down to individual matchups:

   On paper, Michigan should have beaten OSU cleanly. The Buckeyes exploited Michigan's linebackers who couldn't keep up with OSU's receivers underneath. I speculated State's running game would make it or break it, but when you're getting 10-15 yards on rinky-dink crossing routes, you don't need a running game. What is the Achilles heel in Tech's lineup and schemes? That's the challenge the coaching staff faces.

   I know a lot of you will say, "Whatever it is, Doc and his staff won't see it". Maybe, maybe not. You have to give the old fart credit for one thing, he gets the team ready for bowl games. I hope that is the approach he takes as well.

What name ideas do you have? _______ Bowl.

Post-script:

A Redditor created an impressive compilation of stats on Conference vs. Conference and G5 vs. P5 records. In particular:
G5 (WITHOUT WAC) vs. P5 (WITHOUT BIG EAST)

                   RECORD         WIN PCT
ALL-TIME   418-1692-13   0.197
20 YR   312-1393           0.183
10 YR   175-828           0.174
5 YR           98-487           0.168

There is an apparent loss in parity over the years, although it isn't a statistically-significant one at this point (ignoring ties, Chi-Square p~0.22). I guess I have to take back what I said about the predictability of CFB in the P5/G5 era, seeing as it's pretty much always been that way. :-\

[bbcard1]

Thanks so much! your sims are always awesome!

[HaveUherd]

The Programs on decline Bowl

[chris88]

VT has really been beaten up by injuries.  Got some guys back Friday and will get some more back this week. Knee jerk guess is VT by 2 tds

[mu79grad]

Since we are playing the Gobblers, so close to Thanksgiving, I suggest "Tryptophan Bowl."

[ought-three]

VT has really been beaten up by injuries.  Got some guys back Friday and will get some more back this week. Knee jerk guess is VT by 2 tds

And that could signify the roster changes that would push these numbers in their favor. That, plus the prospect of breaking a looooong bowl steak will ensure they come motivated to play.

In my posts, I try to speak for the numbers. My intuition says you're probably right.

[herd2win]

Thanks three...always like your work..

[bbcard1]

They have also lost a couple of players who have announced their transfer.  It will be a very light crowd by VT standards. I think it will be a good game. While you should argue it's a small motivation, Marshall will tie for the best regular season record of any team in CUSA with a win and have a shot at a 10 win season. They will also have the opportunity to end Tech's bowl streak and an awesome showcase for seniors who have further ambitions.

[Buffalo Bop]

https://twitter.com/MarshalluPres/status/1066459826761420805?s=20

[Buffalo Bop]

https://twitter.com/HerdCotton/status/1066691547977138176?s=20

Check it out

[herdfan129]

https://twitter.com/HerdCotton/status/1066691547977138176?s=20

Check it out

Our defense has played great for the most part. I am very happy with Fuller. I had a few doubts here and there early on, but I have been impressed back half of season as well as overall. I think he will be even better next year. Can't wait to see this offense under Cramsey in year two, I think we will make a big jump. Green might throw for 4k yards next year.

[herdgameplan]

Next year AT and other QB’s coming in May even be what is lacking in emotions IG seems not to possess! Competition is great so let’s see what the future has in store after this season.

[biggreenarms]

Hillbilly Bowl

Thanks ought for your "cypherin" . I think we have a good shot at coming away with a win.

[coalherd]

Not sure if Tech had close to full house against UVA on Friday, since on a Holiday week, lot of students gone, etc.  This week's crowd may be smaller, but easily the largest the Herd has played before this season.

One other thing.  Game at high noon.  Completely DIFFERENT game than at night when, with "Enter Sandman", and "juiced up" Hokie fans make Lane Stadium's atmosphere one of the most difficult for visiting teams in all of college football.

Just hope the Herd is up and motivated for this game.  A good opportunity for the program, IMO!!

[Chevy1]

Apologize if this has already been addressed, but what conference will be providing the refs next week?  Seems we've had quite a history of ACC refs at ACC stadiums.....and considering this is a "do or die" situation for VT to go bowling...well...

[Thundering In MD]

Glad to see your simulations back on the board if only for a limited time!!! 

Based on what I saw on Saturday, I think we have a good shot at them (no model evidence to support this).  VT's secondary is horrible.  Their QB is not that great.  I like the Herd's chances. 

[W0lfman]

Apologize if this has already been addressed, but what conference will be providing the refs next week?  Seems we've had quite a history of ACC refs at ACC stadiums.....and considering this is a "do or die" situation for VT to go bowling...well...

i'd like to know the answer to that as well

[goherd24]

Our defense has played great for the most part. I am very happy with Fuller. I had a few doubts here and there early on, but I have been impressed back half of season as well as overall. I think he will be even better next year. Can't wait to see this offense under Cramsey in year two, I think we will make a big jump. Green might throw for 4k yards next year.

That last part is the funniest thing I've ever heard. I thought you said Green would throw for 4000 yards for a second.... Oh wait a minute, you did!!! Hahahahahahahahaabahahababababababababaabavavavavavavavavavavavavavavahahahahahahahahaahahhahahaahahahahah