This bowl matchup reminds me a lot of the 2018 Gasparilla Bowl. The Herd is just on the other side of the equation.
USF started that season very strong, going 7-0, and ranked in the top-25. They then got destroyed by Houston and the wheels came off the bus and the team never recovered. There was a lot of talent but for whatever reason, they could never get back over the hump.
Buffalo worries me. They have a very solid offense. If the Herd gives them good field position with 3-and-outs or turnovers, they're going to score more often than not. The Herd defense isn't going to be able to carry the team, especially if they're out there for 35-40 minutes. This is unlikely to be a low scoring games and the offense will need to score tit-for-tat and put up 30 or 40 points. Which frankly, I don't see happening.