US Death Rate Down in Iraq Since January Elections
Thu Mar 24, 3:01 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The rate of U.S. deaths in the Iraq (news - web sites) war has fallen sharply since the historic January elections as American military leaders tout progress against the insurgency but warn of a long road ahead.
March is on pace for the lowest monthly U.S. military death toll in 13 months, and the rate of American fatalities has fallen by about 50 percent since the parliamentary elections in which millions of Iraqis defied insurgents to cast ballots.
Defense analysts noted that while violence aimed at U.S. forces has declined in the 7 1/2 weeks since the election, insurgent attacks on Iraqis have escalated. They added that previous lulls in attacks on U.S. forces in the two-year war have been followed by intense periods of violence.
"We have seen a downward trend in attacks," Lt. Col. Steve Boylan, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said on Thursday, calling the elections a turning point.
"There's still a very good chance that they (insurgents) can do some spectacular events. But the situation does get better each day, all the time," Boylan added.
At the current pace, the U.S. military death toll in March will reach about 35. That would be the lowest monthly death toll since 20 U.S. troops died in February 2004, the smallest count of the war. But that proved to be a temporary lull followed some of the most bloody months of the war that spring.
Analyst Charles Pena said gauging the progress of the war against insurgents is months, if not years, away.
"I think what you get is a mixed picture in Iraq," said Pena of the Cato Institute. "Whatever progress we're making in terms of violence against U.S. troops, it is being offset by violence against Iraqis and Iraqi security forces."
Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, seemed to agree.
"The average counter-insurgency in the 20th century was about nine years, so it takes time to snuff out the insurgency. And also, I think you know, most insurgencies are defeated by political means rather than necessarily by military means," Casey said in Washington earlier this month.
Since the election, the rate of U.S. military fatalities in Iraq has been about 1.7 per day, compared to about 3.4 per day from November to election day -- a 50 percent drop. It is also about one-fifth lower than the rate experienced from the start of the war until the election.
November through January marked one of the bloodiest periods of the war for U.S. forces, with the Falluja offensive in November and insurgents staging a deadly series of attacks before the election. The 137 U.S. troops killed in November was the highest monthly toll of the war, and the 107 killed in January was the third highest.
The official Pentagon (news - web sites) count released on Thursday listed 1,519 U.S. military deaths since the March 2003 invasion to topple President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites). It said another 11,442 U.S. troops have been wounded.
Casey said he was not ready to declare the elections a "tipping point" toward victory.
"We're in a good position following the elections, but ... we have a lot of work ahead to get to our final objective in Iraq," Casey said.
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