Topic: SHR: PAC 12 not expanding

[MUsince96]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32090530/pac-12-says-not-pursuing-plans-expansion

Pac 12 decided they aren?t pursuing expansion.

That means the Big 12 likely survives and backfills with AAC/MWC/BYU.

Which gives us a chance at The American.

[GreenDaddy]

Posted this in a different thread but?. this could be our chance. You would think the AAC will lose 3 teams out of this deal so the Big 12 can get back to 12. We will see what our value truly is.

I just have a hard time believing the remaining 8 will stick around in the long run, but if none one is willing to expand they may not have a choice. They did hire Oliver Luck last week as a consultant so it does make you wonder if they plan on moving forward as a conference against their own will because of no other options.

[gochneaur645]

Let's say the Big XII ends up taking 4 AAC members in Cincy, UCF, Memphis, and Houston. Let's also say Navy bails and chooses going back to being independent instead of hanging around with the leftovers.

That would leave a very disjointed 6 schools in the AAC:

East Carolina
USF
Temple
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU

Would that even be a group we want to be a part of? I guess it really can't be worse than C-USA, but I don't see much hope for that conference either.

Other than being reunited with ECU who we really belong with, none of those other schools do much for me. Tulane/Tulsa/SMU aren't all that much different from North Texas/UTSA/Rice. USF and Temple don't move the needle much. It's just as disjointed as C-USA geographically.

Maybe it would look more appealing if they also took in App State, Southern Miss, or a couple other Sun Belt/C-USA schools we wouldn't mind being associated with, but even if that happened, I think it's basically like joining C-USA in 2005 after Cincy/Louisville/TCU left but maybe worse. Probably a better option than staying behind though.

[MUsince96]

Let's say the Big XII ends up taking 4 AAC members in Cincy, UCF, Memphis, and Houston. Let's also say Navy bails and chooses going back to being independent instead of hanging around with the leftovers.

That would leave a very disjointed 6 schools in the AAC:

East Carolina
USF
Temple
Tulsa
Tulane
SMU

Would that even be a group we want to be a part of? I guess it really can't be worse than C-USA, but I don't see much hope for that conference either.

Other than being reunited with ECU who we really belong with, none of those other schools do much for me. Tulane/Tulsa/SMU aren't all that much different from North Texas/UTSA/Rice. USF and Temple don't move the needle much. It's just as disjointed as C-USA geographically.

Maybe it would look more appealing if they also took in App State, Southern Miss, or a couple other Sun Belt/C-USA schools we wouldn't mind being associated with, but even if that happened, I think it's basically like joining C-USA in 2005 after Cincy/Louisville/TCU left but maybe worse. Probably a better option than staying behind though.

They?d have the same problem C-USA did last go round. Remaining members are spread all over the country so the replacements are just as far flung.

But if those were the schools left I?d still want to go. Especially if App State came too. An Eastern division of Marshall, ECU, App State, Temple, South Florida, and UAB is much more exciting to me than our division now.

[GreenDaddy]

I just saw that the Big 12 expansion sub committee is meeting tomorrow. Hopefully we will have some answers soon as to the leading candidates for expansion.

[herdfan129]

I just saw that the Big 12 expansion sub committee is meeting tomorrow. Hopefully we will have some answers soon as to the leading candidates for expansion.

Nice. Moving a little faster than I expected.

[herd2win]

Likely take BYU and UCF?AAC only loses 1 and then picks up UAB.

[MU42]

IMO Texas schools are out. It makes sense to us as outsiders but Houston made several Big 12 officials mad back in 2016 and on top of that why would these schools who recruit Houston or Dallas want to give more relevance to Houston or SMU.

BYU is in IMO. The whole they are Mormons and don?t like LGBT, whatever, doesn?t matter when they have people who attend and watch their games no matter who they are playing. Next is probably Cincy which bridges the WVU gap slightly. Then it depends on what the Big 12 wants, do they want to keep the conference as connected as possible or do they want proven winners. If they go with winner I go Boise and UCF. I know it?s crazy the Boise is in the same conference as UCF and WVU but for TV purpose the Big 12 could have games at noon, 330, 7, and 10.

If they want to stay as tight as possible I think you go Memphis which again bridges the WVU gap a little more and? Colorado St. I know that one no one is talking about but they would be back in the Denver market and it is a good school with tons of potential.

How does all this impact us? Well in either scenario the American loses 2 schools and they already only have 11 since UConn left. I would want to move into that conference especially if ECU, Navy, Temple, and one of the Florida schools remained. Jmo, who knows but it?s exciting to think we have even a chance to get out of the worst conference.

[GreenDaddy]

My guesses are BYU, Boise State, Cincy, and UCF. That leaves the AAC needing 3 teams to get back to 12. Surely we make the cut for that, right?

[MUsince96]

My guesses are BYU, Boise State, Cincy, and UCF. That leaves the AAC needing 4 teams to get back to 12. Surely we make the cut for that, right?

I?d think so. Hopefully the AAC paid attention to how C-USA?s market strategy vs. the Sun Belt?s best programs strategy worked out.

[elginherd]

I don't understand why the Big 12 would be motived to add more than 2 teams. Why would they vote for only a 1/12 share of the TV money verses 1/10. BYU does bring eyeballs and money, so they're in. And if bringing eyeballs and money are the priority, IMHO, the leading candidates in decending order are Memphis, UH and UC.

[MUsince96]

Likely take BYU and UCF?AAC only loses 1 and then picks up UAB.

If the AAC loses one they stay put at 10 or add 2 to get back to even divisions with 12.

Why would they add one to go back to 11?

[svherd]

BYU, Cincy, Houston and Memphis make the most sense geographically and program wise. UCF is an outlier. If it's three - UC, BYU and Houston - then Memphis. jmho

[MUsince96]

I don't understand why the Big 12 would be motived to add more than 2 teams. Why would they vote for only a 1/12 share of the TV money verses 1/10. BYU does bring eyeballs and money, so they're in. And if bringing eyeballs and money are the priority, IMHO, the leading candidates in decending order are Memphis, UH and UC.

In their position I think there?s a psychological aspect of strength in numbers.

If they go to 12 I also think media partner preferences will be a consideration.

[NewfieHerdFan]

My guesses are BYU, Boise State, Cincy, and UCF. That leaves the AAC needing 3 teams to get back to 12. Surely we make the cut for that, right?

This makes the most sense, IMO. BYU has always been considered a P5 lite, Boise and UCF have had consistent success for awhile and are recognizable nationwide, and Cincy, who was once P5 in the Big East, is peaking at the right time. Plus, being close to WVU is an added benefit.

[ThunderValley]

BYU and Cincy to B12 and I dont see wvu going to ACC

[chris88]

If UCF and UC goes I have no interest in AAC. We are much better off in a new regional conf without Texas and and other teams like Tulane.

[MUsince96]

If UCF and UC goes I have no interest in AAC. We are much better off in a new regional conf without Texas and and other teams like Tulane.

Maybe so but joining a conference is a lot less weight to move than creating one.

[GreenDaddy]

If UCF and UC goes I have no interest in AAC. We are much better off in a new regional conf without Texas and and other teams like Tulane.

I can see where you are coming from, but even without those schools the AAC is a better conference with a better tv deal. Obviously the payout will shrink, but still probably be more than the $400K we are getting now, and back with ESPN. Just hypothetically looking at it, you would still have the following schools:

1. Temple
2. USF
3. ECU
4. Marshall
5. UAB
6. Tulane
7. Tulsa
8. SMU
9. Navy
10/11/12- Any mix of the best of the rest G5. I would take that all day every day over anything else that has been thrown out currently.

[MUsince96]

I can see where you are coming from, but even without those schools the AAC is a better conference with a better tv deal. Obviously the payout will shrink, but still probably be more than the $400K we are getting now, and back with ESPN. Just hypothetically looking at it, you would still have the following schools:

1. Temple
2. USF
3. ECU
4. Marshall
5. UAB
6. Tulane
7. Tulsa
8. SMU
9. Navy
10/11/12- Any mix of the best of the rest G5. I would take that all day every day over anything else that has been thrown out currently.

Houston and Memphis would still be there too if they only lost Cinci and UCF.

[GreenDaddy]

Houston and Memphis would still be there too if they only lost Cinci and UCF.

I think the Big 12 takes 4 to get back to 12. Houston or Memphis will be the odd man out. My money is on Houston getting the call. You are correct, I forgot Memphis off of my list, so even better when you include them.

[elginherd]

Houston and Memphis would still be there too if they only lost Cinci and UCF.

And if the Big 12 takes BYU, then it's also likely that UC or UCF remains also.

And again, if the AAC loses one they're left with 10 members. Like the Big 12, what is the fundamental motivation for that league to split the money 12 ways instead of 10?

[Flat Tire 2]

The Big 12 could stay at 10 members. They will take a hit on TV revenue so if they expand, I guess it would be for increased TV money. BYU is a national brand because of the religion angle.  I don't see any of the names being mentioned by the posters that bring increased value. I would think The Big 12 is concerned about image and just adding schools would not increase the perception of the conference. JMO.

[breckjimison]

Houston and Memphis would still be there too if they only lost Cinci and UCF.

I also heard that the B12 has no desire to have Houston in their conference. Apparently Tilman Fertitta, who basically owns UH with his contributions to the school, has pissed off the wrong people in the B12 and there are a lot of butt hurt Deans, Chancellors and AD's sticking together to keep them out. This was a discussion I heard this morning on The First Team SeriusXM channel 84.

[chris88]

I can see where you are coming from, but even without those schools the AAC is a better conference with a better tv deal. Obviously the payout will shrink, but still probably be more than the $400K we are getting now, and back with ESPN. Just hypothetically looking at it, you would still have the following schools:

1. Temple
2. USF
3. ECU
4. Marshall
5. UAB
6. Tulane
7. Tulsa
8. SMU
9. Navy
10/11/12- Any mix of the best of the rest G5. I would take that all day every day over anything else that has been thrown out currently.

Disagree. Sorry but that league sucks to me.  An entire thread was dedicated to what a new league might look like and include likes of ECU, Appy State, Liberty, JMU and others.  The travel savings alone would make it worth it and the stability of being in a more regioinal homogenious league would have much more appeal to me for FB/BB/Soccer. It would allow MU to be in on the planning stages without entry fees etc.