Topic: The Athletic: Big 12 expansion talks focused on BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston

[Ovaltine Jenkins]

Here we go.

https://theathletic.com/news/big-12-expansion-talks-focused-on-byu-ucf-cincinnati-houston-sources/5CZvjXPK0mL1

By Max Olsen

The Big 12 continues to engage in serious discussions about future expansion, with a current preference of adding four new members, sources tell The Athletic.

BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston are the four schools that have been most seriously discussed and are considered the leading contenders, sources said. The Athletic previously reported the Big 12 was seriously considering BYU as a potential addition early on in this process.

If the athletic directors and presidents of the league?s eight remaining members can reach a consensus on which members to invite, sources believe it?s possible that the process could move faster than initially anticipated. The ADs of the Big 12?s remaining schools met with commissioner Bob Bowlsby in Dallas on Tuesday and Wednesday to begin planning the future of the conference.

?The eight ADs remain committed to furthering the Big 12 as one of the nation?s premier athletic conferences, and look forward to working with our presidents and chancellors to strengthen the league,? Bowlsby said in a statement on Wednesday. ?Future exploration by the group will continue to center on options that best position the long-term strength of the Conference.?

The Pac-12?s announcement last Thursday that it will not expand at this time meant the leaders of the eight schools have few options beyond staying and working together to build up the conference in preparation for its next phase, when Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC and its grant of rights and television deal expire in 2025.

When would expansion happen?

Few details are known at this time about the Big 12?s intended long-term timeline for bringing in new members.

Texas and Oklahoma have agreed to join the SEC in the summer of 2025 and have not given notice of intent to exit the conference before then. Big 12 bylaws require members to give at least 18 months? notice before withdrawing and a fee of two years of revenue distribution, a penalty that?s expected to be around $80 million. The two exiting schools would need to give notice by the end of December if they wish to join the SEC in the summer of 2023.

Cincinnati, UCF and Houston are members of the American Athletic Conference, which requires 27 months? notice and a $10 million penalty for departing members. Although the conference agreed in 2019 to let UConn exit on 12 months? notice in exchange for a $17 million exit fee, the departure of this trio would be a much more significant loss for the conference.

BYU, an FBS independent in football whose other sports compete in the West Coast Conference, could potentially be brought in as a football-only member.

Why these four schools?

No one school can replace Texas or Oklahoma, but the Big 12 is looking at expansion with the intent to build as strong and compelling a football conference as it can. From that standpoint, these four schools are easy to justify as the top targets.

Cincinnati, Houston and UCF have all played in New Year?s Six bowl games since 2015. BYU came close to reaching one in 2020, going 11-1 and finishing 11th in the final AP poll. Cincinnati is the highest-ranked Group of 5 program in this year?s preseason AP poll at No. 8. These programs can give the Big 12 a better chance of maintaining its status as a Power 5 league, having more top-25 programs and potentially getting more teams into an expanded College Football Playoff.

Give these programs the resources and stage of a Power 5 conference and ? as TCU and West Virginia have proven ? it shouldn?t take long for them to find success.

There has been more debate around Houston than the other three. The Big 12 had previously been reluctant to embrace the school as an expansion candidate. One source said there now appears to be growing support for setting politics aside and accepting that inviting Houston is what?s best for the conference?s long-term strength.

Several more Group of 5 programs are interested in joining the Big 12, but these four have emerged as the initial favorites. One AD said the conference is not trying to rush a decision and more ?homework? is still needed on candidates and which additions bring the most value.

What hurdles to expansion exist?

The addition of new members would require approval by a supermajority of 80 percent of Big 12 membership. If the eight remaining schools can get aligned on this, they would not need the support of Texas and Oklahoma to follow through on their plan.

There are a lot of details the conference would need to work out, too, in making these moves. When would new members join? Would they receive a partial revenue distribution for a period of time? What about an extension of the grant of rights? The continued presence of Texas and Oklahoma in the conference is another obvious issue that needs to be addressed. Then there?s the financial factor and how Big 12 television partners would value this 12-team league going forward.

Bowlsby and the leaders in his conference would have a lot to work through. But executing on an expansion plan would at least bring a sense of stability to the Big 12, helping to calm some fears about the future status and stature of the conference.

[MUsince96]

Time to win big and make a good audition to be one of their AAC replacements.

[Flat Tire 2]

I never heard of the The Athletic so I did some light research.  You always have to wonder if it is an accurate source.  It appears that it is an Internet start up company that the owners are hoping to sell and cash out. I found some information about them on Wiki and we all know you can't trust everything you read on that Wiki site.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Athletic

[MUsince96]

I never heard of the The Athletic so I did some light research.  You always have to wonder if it is an accurate source.  It appears that it is an Internet start up company that the owners are hoping to sell and cash out. I found some information about them on Wiki and we all know you can't trust everything you read on that Wiki site.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Athletic

The Athletic has been around a few years now and is typically one of the most reliable sports news sources.

[Big City]

Cincinnati, Houston and UCF have all played in New Year?s Six bowl games since 2015.

Doc?s choke job could have potentially cost MU a lot. Perfect season and at least have our name in the convo for the access spot.

[Buffalo Bop]

https://twitter.com/max_olson/status/1433457064630706178?s=20

This would gut the AAC and possibly make room for us.

[Ovaltine Jenkins]

I never heard of the The Athletic so I did some light research.  You always have to wonder if it is an accurate source.  It appears that it is an Internet start up company that the owners are hoping to sell and cash out. I found some information about them on Wiki and we all know you can't trust everything you read on that Wiki site.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Athletic

I'm a subscriber and I've found it to be a great source, particularly on breaking news.  I tried it for a year and think so much of it and its staff that I re-upped.

[NewfieHerdFan]

Say those teams leave for the Big 12 and the AAC opts for four teams to get back to 12.

I'm thinking UAB is a lock. I feel they'll try and get Boise, but I'm not sure if Boise would even be interested.

Appy State? Marshall? San Diego State? Colorado State?

[GreenDaddy]

Time to win big and make a good audition to be one of their AAC replacements.

This is what we hired Huff for. These next couple seasons are going to be an audition for us to present as a strong football program on the rise. 

[MUsince96]

Say those teams leave for the Big 12 and the AAC opts for four teams to get back to 12.

I'm thinking UAB is a lock. I feel they'll try and get Boise, but I'm not sure if Boise would even be interested.

Appy State? Marshall? San Diego State? Colorado State?

I don?t see any MWC schools coming. They couldn?t make it work with Boise as it is.

And AAC TV money probably drops to or below MWC per team money after these defections ($4M a year)

[Ovaltine Jenkins]

USF made a strategic mistake last go round.  Now they're on the outside looking in.

https://twitter.com/UCFSports/status/1433470959663697924?s=20

[HoPPy785]

I don?t see any MWC schools coming. They couldn?t make it work with Boise as it is.

And AAC TV money probably drops to or below MWC per team money after these defections ($4M a year)

Was thinking the same. Don't see how a West Coast team can afford to join a watered down AAC. I think they will have to go regional. That will limit the options and help our case. I truly don't believe markets will play into this much. ESPN will probably analyze tv views and give AAC a list of their preferred adds. I think Marshall and App make a lot of sense. Not sure how well UAB does in terms of tv draw but I understand the argument for them. The 4th team is a real question mark to me.

[MUsince96]

Was thinking the same. Don't see how a West Coast team can afford to join a watered down AAC. I think they will have to go regional. That will limit the options and help our case. I truly don't believe markets will play into this much. ESPN will probably analyze tv views and give AAC a list of their preferred adds. I think Marshall and App make a lot of sense. Not sure how well UAB does in terms of tv draw but I understand the argument for them. The 4th team is a real question mark to me.

With streaming, markets aren?t as important. You need an actual fan base to pony up the money for ESPN+ no matter where they live.

For the 4th team I think you try and sweeten the pot for Army somehow. If they say no, take your pick between Georgia State, ODU, Buffalo, Louisiana.  ODU probably has the most fan support between football and hoops.

[GreenDaddy]

With streaming, markets aren?t as important. You need an actual fan base to pony up the money for ESPN+ no matter where they live.

For the 4th team I think you try and sweeten the pot for Army somehow. If they say no, take your pick between Georgia State, ODU, Buffalo, Louisiana.  ODU probably has the most fan support between football and hoops.

I was thinking ODU as well. They have the fan support and facilities to fit in the AAC. My best guesses in the 4 AAC adds would be:

Marshall
Appalachian State
UAB
ODU

And one school that no one seems to talk about because they have been down lately is Southern Miss. They still have enough brand value and fanbase to be a serious contender as well.

[MUther]

To all the people who thought it was perfectly adequate keeping Doc and his 7 wins plus a bowl around for 11 years:

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If we don't go into the AAC with THREE TO FIVE options available then it will be because football, not basketball, but because football was mediocre for so long and didn't have the trophies to be worthy.  It won't be about access to our city or amenities.  It won't be about geography or market.  It'll be about not winning this crappy conference more than once in 16 years.  This is why you don't avoid change until something is stale.  If we could hold up 4 or 5 trophies and a couple more division wins then there would be no question.  This is why UAB is the most sought after.  In 2014, people would have laughed at the thought of their inclusion.  But hard to argue with two out of three championships.

[sardistim]

I never heard of the The Athletic so I did some light research.  You always have to wonder if it is an accurate source.  It appears that it is an Internet start up company that the owners are hoping to sell and cash out. I found some information about them on Wiki and we all know you can't trust everything you read on that Wiki site.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Athletic

The Athletic is a legit media source.  They've hired away sports writers from all over the country to cover regional and professional sports.  I'm aware of 3 former Charlotte Observer writers--a couple who are top quality writers--that were hired away by the Athletic.  Have no way of knowing if they can sustain this model by relying on subscriptions, but in terms of quality, it's probably as good as any sports media today.  It's been worth every dollar for me.

[herdfan129]

The American is at 11 schools. If they lose 3 then that will leave them with 8 schools.... in this case I only see them adding two teams to get back to 10. I don?t think they will expand from there.

I think given location that UAB is a top contender for one spot. They could play in the East or west. In terms of the last spot, I honestly have no idea. I think if we can go on a run this year and finish Top 25 then we have a great shot. If we are another 6-8 wins then I don?t like our chances very much.

[elginherd]

The American is at 11 schools. If they lose 3 then that will leave them with 8 schools.... in this case I only see them adding two teams to get back to 10. I don?t think they will expand from there.

I think given location that UAB is a top contender for one spot. They could play in the East or west. In terms of the last spot, I honestly have no idea. I think if we can go on a run this year and finish Top 25 then we have a great shot. If we are another 6-8 wins then I don?t like our chances very much.

-That first point is a real possibility. And we don't really know if the now Big 8 is going to officially offer those 4. BYU will be in if BYU wants to be. If the AAC loses 3, what is the motivation for them to add more than 2? And if they lose 1, why would they want to replace that school?

-Second point: I am not convinced that a single season's results in FB mean much of anything. Or even that dominating the CUSA would have been a determining factor.