Topic: CSU and Air Force staying in MWC....

[herdfan129]

Things just got really interesting!

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1443938812351111169?s=20

[HoPPy785]

It is kinda fun to see this blow up in the face of the AAC but this is possibly not good for us. The more Western teams they took the better, because it left more quality Eastern teams for us to join with. It's unlikely but there is a possible scenario where they take all the Eastern teams we want to be with and just leave us behind in a garbage heap of teams.

Having said that, I do believe they will chase markets which likely means UAB, UTSA FAU (need to build a basketball arena) and Charlotte. Would be awesome if somehow it was Marshall, UAB, App State and UTSA.

[puma]

It is kinda fun to see this blow up in the face of the AAC but this is possibly not good for us. The more Western teams they took the better, because it left more quality Eastern teams for us to join with. It's unlikely but there is a possible scenario where they take all the Eastern teams we want to be with and just leave us behind in a garbage heap of teams.

Having said that, I do believe they will chase markets which likely means UAB, UTSA FAU (need to build a basketball arena) and Charlotte. Would be awesome if somehow it was Marshall, UAB, App State and UTSA.

I was really hoping the dominoes would fall in a way that the AAC goes after the MWC and then the MWC backfills with Texas C-USA schools. C-USA East plus Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech (I'm assuming UAB is gone under any scenario) would be a pretty decent conference.

The AAC will likely do some serious damage to C-USA in the next month or so.

[CoachMaclid]

Having said that, I do believe they will chase markets which likely means UAB, UTSA FAU (need to build a basketball arena) and Charlotte. Would be awesome if somehow it was Marshall, UAB, App State and UTSA.

Are we sure the AAC is what we really want at this point?  What remains in that conference is...

Tulsa
Tulane
SMU
Temple
USF
Memphis
ECU
Navy

We've been in a conference once where the only national hook was Memphis basketball (and they are doing everything they can to get into the Big 12).  Not sure its worth being in a league traveling from Oklahoma to Philly to Florida, especially if the AAC isn't going to be a top 2 G5 league no matter who they add... I think MWC and Sun Belt is going to overtake them on the football field.

If we could end up in some other re-engineered Southeastern conference (without the C-USA front office and with an ESPN relationship), I think we'll be much happier in the long run than joining this misfit group left in the AAC.

[svherd]

Obviously they didn?t see value in the AAC. They may know that more AAC teams are looking at leaving - such as Memphis and SMU. Frankly, I don?t see a ton of value in that league anyway. But then, we aren?t gonna get an invite unless other schools turn them down. And if that happens, do we really want to go?

[whf]

It is kinda fun to see this blow up in the face of the AAC but this is possibly not good for us. The more Western teams they took the better, because it left more quality Eastern teams for us to join with. It's unlikely but there is a possible scenario where they take all the Eastern teams we want to be with and just leave us behind in a garbage heap of teams.

Having said that, I do believe they will chase markets which likely means UAB, UTSA FAU (need to build a basketball arena) and Charlotte. Would be awesome if somehow it was Marshall, UAB, App State and UTSA.

Somehow I think you are on the right track with these listed schools, maybe not these exact ones. But the image they portray are the ones I also feel AAC will hunt down and convince to join. It isn't their current value, it is their long term value.  They will all be very happy in the AAC, it will act as further enticement with their alumni who have money and numbers to invest in their schools over time.  Just think about the fact that these four schools couldn't be found on a listing of who's who in college football 10 years ago. Now they could (and probably will) fly by many of our schools who are small market, lower enrollment universities.  But without Memphis and SMU in the next four years, who knows...

[whf]

Obviously they didn?t see value in the AAC. They may know that more AAC teams are looking at leaving - such as Memphis and SMU. Frankly, I don?t see a ton of value in that league anyway. But then, we aren?t gonna get an invite unless other schools turn them down. And if that happens, do we really want to go?

IMHO, yes, we do want to go to compete with Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, etc.  Great universities in their regions.

[HoPPy785]

Are we sure the AAC is what we really want at this point?  What remains in that conference is...

Tulsa
Tulane
SMU
Temple
USF
Memphis
ECU
Navy

We've been in a conference once where the only national hook was Memphis basketball (and they are doing everything they can to get into the Big 12).  Not sure its worth being in a league traveling from Oklahoma to Philly to Florida, especially if the AAC isn't going to be a top 2 G5 league no matter who they add... I think MWC and Sun Belt is going to overtake them on the football field.

If we could end up in some other re-engineered Southeastern conference (without the C-USA front office and with an ESPN relationship), I think we'll be much happier in the long run than joining this misfit group left in the AAC.

Yes, I think we still want to go if the right teams go with us. Take your lineup and add some eastern teams... Regardless how this all shakes out, if we could get a core of the below teams, I wouldn't care if it was in the MAC

ECU
App State
Marshall

[herdfan129]

I think this means we have an actual shot at getting an invite to the AAC, and yes I want to go with the right teams. I had no interest when I thought they were inviting MWC teams. I now have interest again.

UAB is a lock imo.
I think one of the Texas teams is a lock (Rice/UTSA).

Question is, they only add two teams and stop at 10? I think that's very possible and then pretend no one else adds value etc.

If they expand to four teams, then I would be surprised if they brought in any more Texas teams. They already have SMU and will be adding UTSA/Rice.

So if they add two more then I think it will be teams from the East or at least eastern minded. From that list you have (in no order):

Marshall
Charlotte
FAU
Ga St
ODU


I don't think Ga St gets invited because they aren't there yet with their attendance and such. I do think Charlotte is in the same boat but Charlotte has a history with those teams so that helps them in that regard.

FAU has a good chance of getting blocked by USF who tried to block UCF last go around.

ODU I'm not sure has a football program good enough to get invited.

I don't think this means anything for us, but I do think this means are at least have a shot at getting an invite if they decide to add 4 teams and go to 12.

[NewfieHerdFan]

I think this means we have an actual shot at getting an invite to the AAC, and yes I want to go with the right teams. I had no interest when I thought they were inviting MWC teams. I now have interest again.

UAB is a lock imo.
I think one of the Texas teams is a lock (Rice/UTSA).

Question is, they only add two teams and stop at 10? I think that's very possible and then pretend no one else adds value etc.

If they expand to four teams, then I would be surprised if they brought in any more Texas teams. They already have SMU and will be adding UTSA/Rice.

So if they add two more then I think it will be teams from the East or at least eastern minded. From that list you have (in no order):

Marshall
Charlotte
FAU
Ga St
ODU


I don't think Ga St gets invited because they aren't there yet with their attendance and such. I do think Charlotte is in the same boat but Charlotte has a history with those teams so that helps them in that regard.

FAU has a good chance of getting blocked by USF who tried to block UCF last go around.

ODU I'm not sure has a football program good enough to get invited.

I don't think this means anything for us, but I do think this means are at least have a shot at getting an invite if they decide to add 4 teams and go to 12.

IMO, if 2:

UAB
UTSA

If 4:

UAB
UTSA
FAU
Charlotte

[HerdEcon]

The AAC has a list of schools or combination of schools it wants and has them ranked in order of preference.

Depending on how the AAC views ECU and what it already brings to the table, Charlotte and ODU may not get the invite.  ECU is close to both those schools and a good argument could be made that the AAC has a good foothold in both those markets with ECU alumni, family, and friends.  I knew several ECU grads when I lived in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater area.  The question is, would Charlotte or ODU offer enough ?new? TV/streaming viewers to outweigh the potential of some other markets?   

No doubt the AAC is going after markets.  The AAC could be forced to go after schools from the SBC or MAC that offer big market ?potential? once CUSA is picked over.  Several ?potential? big markets are in play outside CUSA including Atlanta, Chicago, Buffalo, etc.  Not all the MAC schools are OG and may consider leaving for greener pastures.

[herd2win]

Regional is the way for a school like MU and many others.  These far reaching conferences are not working.  Even WVU was much better when the Big East existed. 

[svherd]

You can bet the AAC media package isn't going to be as lucrative in the future. Also, the cost of our flying teams to Tulsa and SMU isn't going to help us budget wise. Which is why most of us advocate for a regional/eastern based league.

[Rockin Herd Fan]

I'm sure the AAC officials have been in constant communication with their network partners getting feedback on which programs will provide the most value in adding to the league.  If the networks are telling the AAC by adding these 4 schools in these markets, you will maximize your value to us, then they will add 4 schools.  But if the networks are telling them that none of the remaining schools you could add will provide any significant value to us, then they will probably just add two schools to get to 10.  I know people keep saying that Memphis and SMU want out, but who knows if or when that may happen.  Plus if the AAC truly is that all that, then the schools they may be interested in adding will still be available later.  In fact, I contend that it may be in Marshall's best interest to not be invited in the right away.  That way we will get a better idea of how much the AAC TV deal will decrease and see if it is worth even making the move.   

[goherd24]

I was really hoping the dominoes would fall in a way that the AAC goes after the MWC and then the MWC backfills with Texas C-USA schools. C-USA East plus Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech (I'm assuming UAB is gone under any scenario) would be a pretty decent conference.

The AAC will likely do some serious damage to C-USA in the next month or so.

Taking FAU, UTSA and Charlotte is not going to damage cusa. It'll strengthen it. UAB is a small hit but in reality, UAB loses their coach and falls through the floor again in a year or two.

The best thing the AAC could do is take Marshall, UAB, Appy State, and WKU/USM if they want to add strength

[MUonium]

at least we're closer to knowing our fate and that we can't do much worse as far as money no matter how it shakes out.  i think the MW schools made the correct choice.