Topic: Last year's team OOC

[MUther]

Last year's OOC schedule.  We went 8-5.  I'm not seeing where we would have done much better with this team last year.  All MAC games were on the road.  This year we've won 2 at home that we lost last year on the road with Toledo undecided as of yet.  We beat Miami on the road but they are dismal and we would likely have beaten that team last year, too.  We beat Duquesne last year as well.  We beat Wright State and EKU which equate any two of our best wins so far this year.  There is no Indiana type this year for comparison but we played them tough last year till the end.  So MAC's a wash home and away.  Northern Iowa and Campbell loss were bad last year, but Wright and EKU are better wins.  Louisiana we crushed last year, but we get that one this year again and they are somewhat better, so we'll see.  Queens loss this year by one on the road to a hopped up crowd is a wash and doesn't really count against, but was bad at the time.  Toledo should be a better game and we could beat them at home.  Maybe we don't lose by 30 on the road to them with this team, last year?  So two games I think we win last year with this team and that's NIowa and Campbell, both at home.  But I think last year's team with this year's schedule might only have lost the Queen's game as well.  Maybe Duquesne on the road since the margin was so close at home. 

I think this year's team is 9-4 last year, instead of 8-5, OOC. Losing to Indiana and the away MAC schools.
I think last year's team is 8-2 this year , instead of 9-1, OOC. Losing to Queens and Duquesne.   
If we beat UNCG and Toledo that would equal EKU and Wright and half an Indiana.

But the teams are pretty close to this point in both seasons.  Hopefully no conference meltdown this year.

The wheels didn't really come off till conference play last year, but not sure how much was us and how much was CUSA.  Can't really compare because SBC is decent but not CUSA in basketball.  However that Louisiana game says a lot about the difference in competition.  I think both team, last and this, have their way with the SBC.  I'd give this year's team 2-3 more conference wins than what last year's team would do in the SBC.

Nov 12 (Fri)   7 PM     Home      Wright State   W 96-88 

Nov 15 (Mon)   7 PM   Home      Milligan           W 80-58 

Nov 18 (Thu)   7 PM    Home      Campbell         L 65-67 

Nov 21 (Sun)   4 PM    Home      Jackson State   W 80-66 

Nov 23 (Tue)   7 PM    Home      Louisiana          W 93-79 

Nov 27 (Sat)   7 PM     Away      Indiana             L 79-90 

Dec 1 (Wed)    7 PM     Away      Akron                L 86-88 

Dec 4 (Sat)    7 PM      Home      Duquesne          W 72-71 

Dec 8 (Wed)    7 PM     Home     Bluefield            W 100-57

Dec 11 (Sat)   7 PM      Away      EKU                  W 80-69 

Dec 15 (Wed)   7 PM     Away      Ohio                 L 65-75 

Dec 18 (Sat)   4 PM      Home      Northern Iowa   L 60-75 

Dec 21 (Tue)   7 PM      Away      Toledo                L 63-95 

[goherd24]

Last year's OOC schedule.  We went 8-5.  I'm not seeing where we would have done much better with this team last year.  All MAC games were on the road.  This year we've won 2 at home that we lost last year on the road with Toledo undecided as of yet.  We beat Miami on the road but they are dismal and we would likely have beaten that team last year, too.  We beat Duquesne last year as well.  We beat Wright State and EKU which equate any two of our best wins so far this year.  There is no Indiana type this year for comparison but we played them tough last year till the end.  So MAC's a wash home and away.  Northern Iowa and Campbell loss were bad last year, but Wright and EKU are better wins.  Louisiana we crushed last year, but we get that one this year again and they are somewhat better, so we'll see.  Queens loss this year by one on the road to a hopped up crowd is a wash and doesn't really count against, but was bad at the time.  Toledo should be a better game and we could beat them at home.  Maybe we don't lose by 30 on the road to them with this team, last year?  So two games I think we win last year with this team and that's NIowa and Campbell, both at home.  But I think last year's team with this year's schedule might only have lost the Queen's game as well.  Maybe Duquesne on the road since the margin was so close at home. 

I think this year's team is 9-4 last year, instead of 8-5, OOC. Losing to Indiana and the away MAC schools.
I think last year's team is 8-2 this year , instead of 9-1, OOC. Losing to Queens and Duquesne.   
If we beat UNCG and Toledo that would equal EKU and Wright and half an Indiana.

But the teams are pretty close to this point in both seasons.  Hopefully no conference meltdown this year.

The wheels didn't really come off till conference play last year, but not sure how much was us and how much was CUSA.  Can't really compare because SBC is decent but not CUSA in basketball.  However that Louisiana game says a lot about the difference in competition.  I think both team, last and this, have their way with the SBC.  I'd give this year's team 2-3 more conference wins than what last year's team would do in the SBC.

Nov 12 (Fri)   7 PM     Home      Wright State   W 96-88 

Nov 15 (Mon)   7 PM   Home      Milligan           W 80-58 

Nov 18 (Thu)   7 PM    Home      Campbell         L 65-67 

Nov 21 (Sun)   4 PM    Home      Jackson State   W 80-66 

Nov 23 (Tue)   7 PM    Home      Louisiana          W 93-79 

Nov 27 (Sat)   7 PM     Away      Indiana             L 79-90 

Dec 1 (Wed)    7 PM     Away      Akron                L 86-88 

Dec 4 (Sat)    7 PM      Home      Duquesne          W 72-71 

Dec 8 (Wed)    7 PM     Home     Bluefield            W 100-57

Dec 11 (Sat)   7 PM      Away      EKU                  W 80-69 

Dec 15 (Wed)   7 PM     Away      Ohio                 W 65-75 

Dec 18 (Sat)   4 PM      Home      Northern Iowa   L 60-75 

Dec 21 (Tue)   7 PM      Away      Toledo                L 63-95

You're looking for a reason to be negative and miserable.

Last year Duquesne was bad, we crushed those mac teams, and I can't believe you think this team is 9-4 last year. This team beats Indiana last year, and where are the other losses, ooc?

Last year we were 7-6 OOC also and lost to Ohio. We have never beaten Ohio like a drum like we did this season. The wheels came off in the 2nd half at Indiana, and at rhe end of ooc play as we went on a 3 game skid. At no point last year, were we top 50 in the nation in any defensive category, and at no point were we #1 in the conference in many meaningful statistical categories. This team is head and shoulders better than last season

[CoachMaclid]

If you can't tell a massive difference between Handlogten, Curfman, and Connor's minutes vs Mikel Beyers, Early, and George, then that's a bad take by you.

But since eyeball test is hard to argue, let's go to the stats -
* Beyers, George, and Early combined to average combined in aggregate to average 18.7 points per game, 3.2 assists per game, 9.1 rebounds per game, 0.75 blocks and 2.0 steals per game, and they committed 3.5 turnovers per game.
* Handlogten, Curfman, and Conner are combined to average 25.1 points per game, 10 assists per game, 17.9 rebounds per game, 3.2 blocks and 2.8 steals per game, and committing 3.8 turnovers per game.

Not only are this year's newbies scoring nearly 6-7 points per game more than what they replaced, their assist numbers are 3x higher (* our shooting percentage counts for about 4-5 more points of production from the Kinsey, Tayor, OAK camp).  Not only are this year's newbies directly contributing on average about 10-12 points more than what we lost/replaced, the 8 additional rebounds, 2 additional steals, and 3 additional blocks per game are 13 additional opponent's possession reductions in our favor, which when multipled by average shooting percentage is about 6-7 points better defensively per game. * (Not accounting for the mentality change or the fact that Kinsey is playing off the ball this year which is where he's most dangerous).

Point blank, we're 16-18 points better this year just on personnel alone.  Go add some standard deviation of 17 points to our margin of victories/defeats last year.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Akron.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Ohio.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Duquesne.  You might try to argue that's home versus road, but the Duquesne games helps dispel that.

Kinsey is playing in the correct 3 slot position this year. Taylor has bulked up and is more impactful this year, thanks in part to Curfman's presence.  Handlogten is an impact player we did not have at that position last year.  If you aren't seeing a MASSIVE difference between this year and last, then I have to ask if you realize that Marshall is team wearing BLACK and not green this year on the road for some reason?  That must be it... you must not recognize our uniforms... :)

[2xBison]

Do you attend any of the basketball games or otherwise watch the games?  Or are you just comparing scores and schedule?


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[herdorbust2]

You're looking for a reason to be negative and miserable.

Last year Duquesne was bad, we crushed those mac teams, and I can't believe you think this team is 9-4 last year. This team beats Indiana last year, and where are the other losses, ooc?

Last year we were 7-6 OOC also and lost to Ohio. We have never beaten Ohio like a drum like we did this season. The wheels came off in the 2nd half at Indiana, and at rhe end of ooc play as we went on a 3 game skid. At no point last year, were we top 50 in the nation in any defensive category, and at no point were we #1 in the conference in many meaningful statistical categories. This team is head and shoulders better than last season

Yes he is. If he can't see how much better this team is then he needs to just give up. Not even close. This team plays great defense and moves with length. That was actually an embarrassing post for him.

[goherd24]

Yes he is. If he can't see how much better this team is then he needs to just give up. Not even close. This team plays great defense and moves with length. That was actually an embarrassing post for him.

I mean, he was trying to be negative as possible and got the record wrong, which made us look better. Lol. I wish we beat Ohio last season. Would have been better. I hate those bums.

[DC01HERD]

We played awful against Milligan and had we played someone decent that would have been a loss. Jackson St wasn't much better. Ohio, Northern Iowa and Toledo were disasters.

[The E-Man]

If you can't tell a massive difference between Handlogten, Curfman, and Connor's minutes vs Mikel Beyers, Early, and George, then that's a bad take by you.

These 3 players would be sitting the bench this year, because the 3 you mentioned are better basketball players..

[elginherd]

These 3 players would be sitting the bench this year, because the 3 you mentioned are better basketball players..

Beyers had a lot more upside than he ever realized.

He was very talented, except between his ears.

[gochneaur645]

This was an embarrassing post even if you didn't get the part about beating Ohio wrong.

We're #88 in KenPom. Finished last year #238.

[herdorbust2]

Beyers had a lot more upside than he ever realized.

He was very talented, except between his ears.

Agree but his defense was awful. He didn't move laterally well and was lazy closing out on three pointers. George, Jannson and Beyers all had that problem. The 3 freshman actually play D with fundamentals. Best defensive team we have had in decades.

[MUther]

I said we lost to Ohio in the text.  But it was a lot of work to make that schedule legible in a post and I must have deleted the correct score to the Ohio game and got another one.  It's the equivalent of a typo.   

Bottom line is most of the people gushing over this team said when the schedule was released we'd crush it, including me.  And now that we are we're suddenly great?  We're doing what the schedule was designed to do.  Keep Dan's job.  It's certainly not designed to make any waves, had no Q1 OOC teams.  The highest NET team we've played is Queens sitting at 120 and we lost that game.  Not a bad loss, but gives us some idea what happens to us above that mark.  And we've cheated the fans out of quality, meaningful games so that the old man can keep his job.   I'm not negative or miserable.  I think it's funny as hell.

[MUther]

This was an embarrassing post even if you didn't get the part about beating Ohio wrong.

We're #88 in KenPom. Finished last year #238.

Yes because we lost almost every conference game.  But we weren't 238 after the OOC portion of the schedule last year.  It's apples to oranges.  And our OOC schedule wasn't 355 or whatever last year.

Of course we're 17 points better against a bottom 350 schedule.  That's the whole point.

[2xBison]

I said we lost to Ohio in the text.  But it was a lot of work to make that schedule legible in a post and I must have deleted the correct score to the Ohio game and got another one.  It's the equivalent of a typo.   

Bottom line is most of the people gushing over this team said when the schedule was released we'd crush it, including me.  And now that we are we're suddenly great?  We're doing what the schedule was designed to do.  Keep Dan's job.  It's certainly not designed to make any waves, had no Q1 OOC teams.  The highest NET team we've played is Queens sitting at 120 and we lost that game.  Not a bad loss, but gives us some idea what happens to us above that mark.  And we've cheated the fans out of quality, meaningful games so that the old man can keep his job.   I'm not negative or miserable.  I think it's funny as hell.

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[herdorbust2]

I said we lost to Ohio in the text.  But it was a lot of work to make that schedule legible in a post and I must have deleted the correct score to the Ohio game and got another one.  It's the equivalent of a typo.   

Bottom line is most of the people gushing over this team said when the schedule was released we'd crush it, including me.  And now that we are we're suddenly great?  We're doing what the schedule was designed to do.  Keep Dan's job.  It's certainly not designed to make any waves, had no Q1 OOC teams.  The highest NET team we've played is Queens sitting at 120 and we lost that game.  Not a bad loss, but gives us some idea what happens to us above that mark.  And we've cheated the fans out of quality, meaningful games so that the old man can keep his job.   I'm not negative or miserable.  I think it's funny as hell.

Obviously you haven't actually watched the games or you are clueless about basketball. And it's obvious you have an agenda by saying it was to let the old man keep his job. I think we all get it!!!

[gochneaur645]

Yes because we lost almost every conference game.  But we weren't 238 after the OOC portion of the schedule last year.  It's apples to oranges.  And our OOC schedule wasn't 355 or whatever last year.

Of course we're 17 points better against a bottom 350 schedule.  That's the whole point.

KenPom takes SoS into account so it thinks we're 88th best (higher than any other Dan team finished) despite that.

Last year, we were 5-6 OOC against D-1 teams. This year we're going to finish 11-1 at best or 9-3 at worst.

Yeah the schedule is easier this year, but not nearly enough to make the huge difference in those records "apples and oranges." Last night was also our first single digit win of the season (barely). We're consistently dominating teams while the 5 wins last year included close ones at home over Wright State and a horrible Duquesne.

I don't think we struggled in conference play because games got significantly tougher. We were just butt. You could tell that from ending OOC play with 10, 15, and 32 point losses. Part of our losing streak to start C-USA play was a home loss to Rice (#220) and a loss to FIU (#275).

This team is a night and day difference from last year, statistically and with the eye test. I don't know what else to say if you can't see that.

[ThunderingHerdFan]

I said we lost to Ohio in the text.  But it was a lot of work to make that schedule legible in a post and I must have deleted the correct score to the Ohio game and got another one.  It's the equivalent of a typo.   

Bottom line is most of the people gushing over this team said when the schedule was released we'd crush it, including me.  And now that we are we're suddenly great?  We're doing what the schedule was designed to do.  Keep Dan's job.  It's certainly not designed to make any waves, had no Q1 OOC teams.  The highest NET team we've played is Queens sitting at 120 and we lost that game.  Not a bad loss, but gives us some idea what happens to us above that mark.  And we've cheated the fans out of quality, meaningful games so that the old man can keep his job.   I'm not negative or miserable.  I think it's funny as hell.

Serious question, how much stock do you put in the NET?

Think carefully before you answer.

[goherd24]

Yes because we lost almost every conference game.  But we weren't 238 after the OOC portion of the schedule last year.  It's apples to oranges.  And our OOC schedule wasn't 355 or whatever last year.

Of course we're 17 points better against a bottom 350 schedule.  That's the whole point.

Our schedule is ranked in the lower 200's so far, our of 350+ and you said we went 8-5 ooc last year and we didn't, we went 7-6 and the schedule wasn't much tougher, we just sucked. We don't suck this year, and are quite good.

[2xBison]

Well we have at least established some with an agenda don't watch the games at all and if they are watching then they probably should stop discussing this sport.


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[Olen]

Bottom line is most of the people gushing over this team said when the schedule was released we'd crush it, including me.  And now that we are we're suddenly great?  We're doing what the schedule was designed to do.  Keep Dan's job.  It's certainly not designed to make any waves, had no Q1 OOC teams.  The highest NET team we've played is Queens sitting at 120 and we lost that game.  Not a bad loss, but gives us some idea what happens to us above that mark.  And we've cheated the fans out of quality, meaningful games so that the old man can keep his job.   I'm not negative or miserable.  I think it's funny as hell.

Let's throw out the "outlier" voices - those on the extremes in each direction (imo, not that many on this forum - perhaps a few in each direction); instead, let's focus on the greater number of moderates that are commenting and what most seem to be focused on - the Herd and the opposition. 

Focusing on the Herd first - the non-extreme folks that are commenting seem generally pleased - pleased that this team is completing games, despite the occasional slips and lulls that happen between tip and horn.  Folks seem pleased that the three freshmen are integrating nicely into the rotation and giving us not only quality offense, but more importantly, length and quickness to play solid defense.  Folks seem pleased that when the ball rotates on offense, the success rate goes up - and that happens more often than not.

Focusing on the opposition - I have not read or heard of one person that has characterized the schedule as a murder's row.  Based on last year's ratings, the schedule is relatively softer; but we will not know the true measure of the schedule until the season ends - which may be important given that the Queens loss was the subject of extreme focus at sesason's start.  In the two ratings systems that the NCAA has most recently used (the RPI that then gave way to NET in 2018-ish), the Queens game is now considered a Quad 1 (RPI) and Quad 2 (NET) game.  Whether it will remain at those designations throughout the season remains to be seen, but at present, it represents a quality game and cuts against conventional wisdom.

All the computer ratings used incorporate some form of SoS in the algorithm to produce a rating scale that then allows for ordinal ranking based on the rating.  As of this morning, here are several of the more popular rating systems and MU's ranking within each:
 

• NET   41
• RPI   65
• TOR   68
• SAG   86
• MAS   79
• NOL   88
• POM   87
• MASCMP   78

In addition, the TOR (Brad Torvik) rating has a predictor for each conference that predicts the auto bid and seeding - Marshall currently tops the SB with a 31% chance of getting the auto bid and a predicted 11.9 seed (somewhere between 11 and 12 seed). 

Since the Herd is in the top quarter of these major computer ratings, and a service like TOR is providing positive info, rating services that are viewed mostly as objective services - WHY wouldn't fans be excited?  Especially considering where it ended last season?  Despite the play and results, does any reasonable person think this Herd team is "great"?  At this point, I doubt you would find a reasonable person willing to crawl out onto that limb - esp. with only 1/3 of the season in the books.

Last thing - allow an alternative perspective on the schedule and why it was constructed in this manner.  Assuming Dantoni et al. selfishly created this schedule for wins and to guarantee an extension of his contract requires that folks believe that Pres. Smith and AD Spears are morons easily fooled by a single metric (wins).  That Pres. Smith and AD Spears could not see through such a transparent development is an extraordinary belief.  Alternatively, at the other extreme, and perhaps much worse, rather than being fooled by the schedule they are in on and approving of the schedule for this purpose, which makes Pres. Smith and AD Spears complicit.  Either way - our leaders would be yielding to the bball coach.  And the only bball coaches that have known that kind of power were named Wooden, Rupp, Knight, Dean Smith, and the Duke guy (I'm not looking up the proper spelling of the former Duke coach).  Is it plausible (perhaps even likely) that the schedule was constructed not for such a cynical purpose but to help restore some confidence in a returning group that experienced little success after the Indiana game (and to help the new guys get a bit better acclimated)?  That is not to suggest you have to agree with the schedule being constructed for this purpose - but what if it was (or some other similar reasons/purposes)?  Just something to ponder.

[herdorbust2]

Olen that was exactly what it was for. There are enough games to be challenged but not destroy confidence. He knew he wanted to play these freshman and wanted to have a chance to mold this team together. It's working out very well so far. We are moving up the ladder and getting noticed. Not only are we squeezing by solid teams but beating most badly. People are noticing that. I think next year you will see scheduling get a little beefier.

[herd247]

Great research.  The eye test alone is great, but facts don't have feelings.  Thanks for posting. 

If you can't tell a massive difference between Handlogten, Curfman, and Connor's minutes vs Mikel Beyers, Early, and George, then that's a bad take by you.

But since eyeball test is hard to argue, let's go to the stats -
* Beyers, George, and Early combined to average combined in aggregate to average 18.7 points per game, 3.2 assists per game, 9.1 rebounds per game, 0.75 blocks and 2.0 steals per game, and they committed 3.5 turnovers per game.
* Handlogten, Curfman, and Conner are combined to average 25.1 points per game, 10 assists per game, 17.9 rebounds per game, 3.2 blocks and 2.8 steals per game, and committing 3.8 turnovers per game.

Not only are this year's newbies scoring nearly 6-7 points per game more than what they replaced, their assist numbers are 3x higher (* our shooting percentage counts for about 4-5 more points of production from the Kinsey, Tayor, OAK camp).  Not only are this year's newbies directly contributing on average about 10-12 points more than what we lost/replaced, the 8 additional rebounds, 2 additional steals, and 3 additional blocks per game are 13 additional opponent's possession reductions in our favor, which when multipled by average shooting percentage is about 6-7 points better defensively per game. * (Not accounting for the mentality change or the fact that Kinsey is playing off the ball this year which is where he's most dangerous).

Point blank, we're 16-18 points better this year just on personnel alone.  Go add some standard deviation of 17 points to our margin of victories/defeats last year.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Akron.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Ohio.  That explains the difference in the thumping toward Duquesne.  You might try to argue that's home versus road, but the Duquesne games helps dispel that.

Kinsey is playing in the correct 3 slot position this year. Taylor has bulked up and is more impactful this year, thanks in part to Curfman's presence.  Handlogten is an impact player we did not have at that position last year.  If you aren't seeing a MASSIVE difference between this year and last, then I have to ask if you realize that Marshall is team wearing BLACK and not green this year on the road for some reason?  That must be it... you must not recognize our uniforms... :)