I agree with your analysis and rotation. But I don't see a better D at all. And the offense will struggle at times a lot. There is going to be some long dry spells scoring. Kinsey and Andrew had been here for years and was very comfortable doing what they wanted. Imo the key to this team will be Conner. If he takes a massive jump and plays with aggression and leadership this team can be decent because he is the type of guy that can make everyone better and also score. But he has to become that player for this team to have a chance imo.
When it comes to defense, we switch AT out for Volpe (who had 2.0 SPG last year), we do lose Handlogten in terms of rim protection. But this year, we move OAK, who is already a great shot blocker, to the 5, and we insert Martin, who ranked 8th in the SBC in block percentage (the % of the opposing teams shots blocked by said player while they are on the floor - Micah ranked 3rd and OAK was 5th) at the 4 spot, and I think we?ll be solid, but not improved there. I do think our perimeter D will improve, I expect Conner to improve in this area and I think Crawford will specialize here as well. I also think Voyles will contribute here as well. I think last year?s defensive improvement was more a result of Adam Williams replacing Rigot than anything else, if you watched last year, he?s the most vocal coach with players, it seems he?s always point something out. With the addition of Justin Caldwell on the bench next year, I expect some improvement again.
I agree that Conner will be the key to the season. He, but also OAK and Voyles will decide whether this team ends up with 12 wins or 20. I think the Sun Belt is going to be weaker next year, and even with a maybe less talented team than we had last year, we can still challenge for a Top 4 spot if the right players improve. The upper echelon of SBC teams was mostly complacent this off-season, Ark St and GSU had the best off seasons. JMU brought in a guy who averaged less than 2 PPG at Colorado and a guy who averaged 5/5/1 last year at BC. Louisiana has pretty much just sat on their hands, and USM brought in a guy who averaged less than 2 PPG at Oregon St, and another guy who averaged 3 points a game at UNLV. We might not have had a great off-season, but most SBC teams didn?t this year.