So it's pretty clear there's going to only be a PAC-4 within the next week or so.
That PAC name is too valuable to dissolve the conference so my guess is they take the most valuable half of the MWC (Boise, Fresno, SDSU, Colo St, UNLV, Utah St) to get to 10.
That would be really good news for us because it ends up weakening the MWC and basically eliminates our biggest competitor outside the AAC for that yearly playoff berth. And the zombie-PAC wont be guaranteed a berth so it's not crazy to think that 2 current G5 teams could get autobids to the 2024 or 2025 playoff.
Of course, the PAC could also go further east and pluck the private AAC schools like SMU, Tulane, Rice, and I guess maybe Tulsa. This is the scenario most likely to directly affect us since the AAC could come looking to some SBC schools seeing if they want to defect.
But even that probably only results in us losing a Georgia State, ODU, or Texas State. The dream scenario of course is that ECU gets fed up with the AAC and joins us. Taking WKU to replace one of those schools would be fine too.
Either way it probably gets even worse for C-USA. If there's only half a MWC left, they're immediately taking UTEP, NMSU, and maybe La Tech to refill their numbers. C-USA will be forced back to their options of Tarleton State or calling up even more FCS schools.
So glad we got out of that mess, and I think we're in a pretty good spot to benefit from most of the outcomes of this latest wave.