Bottom line up top: Marshall is safe as a Top 4 seed, a loss tonight would only likely bump as to #2 in RPI, and I think we likely keep RPI #1 with a draw.
Right now, here's the RPI ratings...
1. Marshall .6397
2. Notre Dame .6279
3. Georgetown .6138
4. SMU .6103
Both Notre Dame and Georgetown have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments, SMU isn't getting SoS and OSoS bumps from their opponents. UCF lost .019 from their ratings when they lost to a weaker USC team. Even taking a similar hit (though UK brings a much tougher OSoS), we would still be #2. There's as much of a gap between us and #3 as there is between #3 and #12.
While the tournament committee does rely on RPI heavily, they do have the ability to adjust rankings for recent form and records. At that point, 3 losses in the last 5 (though against NCAA tournament teams), might question why we would be #1 overall, especially with Notre Dame sitting there with only 2 losses against the 3rd best schedule in the country. #1 overall may not necessarily be firm, but we are a lock for Top 4.
So, my recommendation - simply enjoy tonight's game. We're resting some starters, we already have a conference trophy, and we're playing with house money. Even with a loss tonight, our next road trip this season would be the College Cup.