Topic: Well, how will we finish out? A look at the Sagarin.

[Huffnagel]

Sagarin Ratings to consider:

Marshall:84

W-Memphis: 148
W-Tulane: 125
W-SIU: 101
W-BGSU:100

L-VT:7
L-ECU:68

Future opponents:

Southern Miss: 71
CFU: 99
UTEP: 102
UAB: 116
SMU: 108
WVU: 34

Everybody ranked lower than the HERD in the Sagarin we've beat. Everyone higher, we've lost to. So if you use that rule of thumb, then Marshall could finish the season 8-4.  Just something to think about.

[sdfgoherd]

9-3 with a win over Southern Miss would make things a little better. The negative feelings toward Snyder are so strong at this point. 

[Johnnyherd]

Wait, does the Sagarin rating automatically update? Or are those last weeks, or what??

[Huffnagel]

Those were last weeks results. I just looked them up tonight.

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

I'm hoping our ranking goes up quite a bit tomorrow because Sagarin only projected us to beat Tulane by 4 if you take into account their home field advantage.  We really took a tumble last week not so much because of our loss to ECU, but our SOS went way down (from 46 to 63) because at least a couple of the teams we have played had really bad games.  The new ratings usually come out around 10:00 am Sunday.  I'm anxious to see what they rank us.

BTW, Sagarin is pretty well respected when you get far enough into the season for all the teams to be connected.  Sagarin had us winning by 4 which I think was the same as the spread.  According to the numbers right now, WVU beats us by 14.88 points next week if you include the 2.91 points for their home field advantage.

[CJHerdgrad]

Something else I can follow up on while at the computer. 

Seriously, 8 wins will get Snyder another year.

[field pass]

I think Sagrin rankings after this last weekend will change the story some.

Memphis beat UTEP and I considered UTEP an uncertaintyfor us on the road...but on the other hand they beat Houston which is in the top 25.

SMU beat ECU....which causes me to think that I could have under estimated the chances that we will end up with a Loss there.  They also beat UAB...which beat Southern Miss.

Southern Miss should have and almost beat Louisville (lost by 2 points at the end) and they played #20 Kansas a lot closer than we would have (35-28) and they beat UVA.  Makes me think thats a highly probably Loss.

Id just have to guess that we lose to WVU, and SMU and Southern Miss, but pull out the win against UAB.  Id consider UTEP a toss up...and I think UCF is so close to being at our level of competition that it could go either way.  Being that its on the road...Id have to guess its a loss.

So thats 4 more probably losses to go with WVU, SMU, and Southern Miss and UCF.  Giving the beloved Herd the benefit of the doubt on UTEP and just assume that their win over Houston was a fluke and UABs win over Southern Miss was a fluke and give us the wins there.

Folks there it is not likely to get out of this season with 7 wins.  All weve beaten in conference is Memphis and Tulane.

We simply look slightly worse than UCF, UAB, Southern Miss, and SMU...

Our record is up there with some of these other teams but while we have played Memphis and Tulane they have played:

Southern Miss: UCF and UAB
UAB: SMU and Southern Miss
SMU: UAB and ECU
UCF: Southern Miss and ECU
ECU: UCF and SMU
UTEP: Houston and Memphis
Memphis: UTEP and UCF

So, its obvious that we have played the weakest conference schedule thus far.  I dont see any way out of losses to WVU, SMU and Southern Miss.  And UTEP, UCF and UAB will be much more uncertain than Memphis and Tulane.

Sorry to say.

SO STILL PREDICTING 6-6 OR 5-7

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Dude, no offense, but I like the new Sagarin projections much more than yours.  We lose only one more game according to the latest Sagarin ratings.

[bigwormy]

Fieldpass... did u forget that we already played ecu as well? you mentioned the other schools playing a tougher conference schedule than us and mention more than 1 team that played ecu. however, u said marshall had only played tulane and memphis and that our schedule is much weaker. did u not include marshall playing ecu because it would have made your argument a mute point or did u just simply forget? just curious.

[HerdnClt]

Who cares. Improvement is evident and that is why being 4-2 is not bad at this point.  Win the rest and you go bowling for sure. Take each game one at a time and believe you can win..The Herd has the talent...but they gotta believe...

[tradebait]

8-4 is doable.  Loss at WV, loss at UCF.  With a big potential stumble at UTEP.

[field pass]

8-4 is doable.  Loss at WV, loss at UCF.  With a big potential stumble at UTEP.

youre crazy...after WVU...Southern Miss and SMU are our next biggest potential loss, then UCF, then maybe UTEP or UAB.  Just look at the record of SMU and Southern Miss and who theyve played.  We have a solid lock on three more losses...by anyones standards.  Im predicting slightly more than that...we will see.

[herds]

you're crazy...after WVU...Southern Miss and SMU are our next biggest potential loss, then UCF, then maybe UTEP or UAB.  Just look at the record of SMU and Southern Miss and who they've played.  We have a solid lock on three more losses...by anyones standards.  I'm predicting slightly more than that...we will see.

Way to be Mr. Doom and Gloom.

We play UAB, USM, and SMU at home. Utep just loss to Memphis and UCF's offense is ranked 110....

we have a decent shot to win out after WVU  ;)