Topic: Ratings and Predictions for Week 7

[ought-three]

CUSA Point Ratings
1   Houston   15.00
2   Marshall   10.50
3   Tulsa   10.20
4   SMU   9.60
5   ECU   9.00
6   UCF   9.00
7   Southern Miss   8.00
8   UAB   7.80
9   UTEP   7.50
10   Tulane   6.00
11   Memphis   4.50
12   Rice   0.00

Predictions for select games (according to the formula)
WVU 36 - 30 MU
Florida 36 - Arkansas 19
Ohio State 33 - 22 Purdue
Oklahoma 24 - Texas 20
Virginia Tech 33 - Georgia Tech 24
Boise St. 29 - 22 Tulsa
Houston 43 - Tulane 24

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Has that formula worked well in predicting past  games?  That shows us to be better than even the Sagarin ratings say, and that spread against WVU is even closer than Sagarin spread and much closer than the Vegas spread.

[The E-Man]

Has that formula worked well in predicting past  games?  That shows us to be better than even the Sagarin ratings say, and that spread against WVU is even closer than Sagarin spread and much closer than the Vegas spread.

Man, its good you guys have high hopes.. but my Herd friends, "reality" will sit in when we play the Eeers,, I'd love nothing more to than to crush the arrogant S.O.B's... Truth is we still have Snyder at the helm..have you watched all of the teams we beat and been objective? these were very poor teams in fact, I think Tulane was worse than Memphis and B-G. With that said, hope for the best, but prepare for the worse.......

[ought-three]

Has that formula worked well in predicting past  games?  That shows us to be better than even the Sagarin ratings say, and that spread against WVU is even closer than Sagarin spread and much closer than the Vegas spread.

Being a new system, I have been struggling with how to handle strength of schedule. If there was much difference between two teams' schedules, it would skew heavily in favor of the team with the harder schedule. The previous system could have potentially boosted another team by a factor of 10.81, which gave some outrageous results (Miss St. by 29 over Houston??). This system takes less calculation (which is always good) and can only help a team by a factor of about 1.92. I only hit about 58% of the games I tested, but when I replayed those numbers in the new formula I hit 88%! I'm going to get a much bigger sample for this week and see how it does. I think the Vegas spread is like 17, and that's probably good. Vegas and Jeff Sagarin have two things on me: Skill and experience. LOL I think this prediction formula is much more solid now that SOS is worked out. I'm OK predicting closer so long as i'm getting the right teams. Name a game you want to see ran through and I will be happy to do it and post it for comment! PS - what I do like about this system is that it predicts a specific score, not just a relative score (i.e. - Team A favored by 6 points)

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Thanks ought-three.  You already ran the numbers for the game I'm interested in.

[CharlestonHerdGuy]

Man, its good you guys have high hopes.. but my Herd friends, "reality" will sit in when we play the Eeers,, I'd love nothing more to than to crush the arrogant S.O.B's... Truth is we still have Snyder at the helm..have you watched all of the teams we beat and been objective? these were very poor teams in fact, I think Tulane was worse than Memphis and B-G. With that said, hope for the best, but prepare for the worse.......

I hear ya' E-Man.  I love what these statistics are telling us, but my gut is telling me to not get my hopes up too high.  If Snyder does show up and actually compete in this game though, he will have accomplished a 3rd thing this season he has never been able to accomplish before or at least not since K-State in 05 - compete against a BCS team.

[McGuyver]

Being a new system, I have been struggling with how to handle strength of schedule. If there was much difference between two teams' schedules, it would skew heavily in favor of the team with the harder schedule. The previous system could have potentially boosted another team by a factor of 10.81, which gave some outrageous results (Miss St. by 29 over Houston??). This system takes less calculation (which is always good) and can only help a team by a factor of about 1.92. I only hit about 58% of the games I tested, but when I replayed those numbers in the new formula I hit 88%! I'm going to get a much bigger sample for this week and see how it does. I think the Vegas spread is like 17, and that's probably good. Vegas and Jeff Sagarin have two things on me: Skill and experience. LOL I think this prediction formula is much more solid now that SOS is worked out. I'm OK predicting closer so long as i'm getting the right teams. Name a game you want to see ran through and I will be happy to do it and post it for comment! PS - what I do like about this system is that it predicts a specific score, not just a relative score (i.e. - Team A favored by 6 points)

+1 for your hard work

[ought-three]

+1 for your hard work

Much appreciated! :)