WVU - we probably lose. I'd give them 10-1, but you never know.
WCU - we destroy
OU - much of last year's fiasco is fixed, I think. Much more athleticism and, we are told, more aggressive 2nd level D (a product of athleticism). On the road, close game. But we are home. Herd by 2 TD's.
Purdue. The first real test. Much like Lousiville, but a little better. We are a little better too, and PU tends to lose these games. They have ND the next week and will ignore us a bit. It's a toss up, but we might win if we can kick (so we'll probably lose).
Tulsa. Again, athleticism in the 2nd and 3rd levels killed us last year, as did having the 30 mph wind in our face in the 1st quarter. The team's relative lack of confidence let it snowball from there. This year, we are more athletic, there will not be wind and we will be at home. Also a toss up, but a real solid chance to win.
At USM. Lost coach, lost VERY GOOD QB and a bunch of other starters. They are in chaos. Another very good chance for a win, as we are better than last year and they are going to be much worse. Probable win, but no guarantees.
UCF. At home. Everyone is blowing this team now. Why? Seriously. This is a should win, not a will win. Will be a hell of a fight and I will NOT miss it.
Memphis. Who? Win.
UAB. Win, but tougher due to last year's humiliation.
Houston. We are home, and again, we are much more athletic at 2 and 3 levels of D. This is another we can and probably should win. They will score. But we scored a lot on them last year too, if memory serves, and they lost a bunch on an already poor D.
ECU. They are considerably worse than last year. We are better, no doubt, perhaps (I'm praying here) a lot better than last year, particularly by late in the season. Very tough game, and on the road, we will need some brakes to win. Thankfully, ECU is good at giving breaks (see TO margin). Another should win, but I'm not confident in G'Vegas.
Bottom line. We appear to have fixed a lot of our problems with athleticism at LB and DB. Cato and the RB's will be better this year, even if only a little (see Van's per-rush average the last 5 games last year - something like 8 ypc). Re intangibles, you have to look at all the close wins last year. That is huge. The pessimists may say it's a bad sign, but it's not. That team, as long as they were in the game, REFUSED to lose. That is Doc's biggest strength, not his recruiting. You can't buy that at any price.
We could very easily go 5-7 against this schedule. But we are better than last year, even if only a little, and we won 6 last year (regular season). Last year's schedule was a "murderer's row" when compared to this year. Litterally every team we played was better last year, most of them MUCH better than this year, except UCF maybe. Just on year to year scheduling, we should win 8 rather than 6 (beating WCU is one, the other will come someplace else). With some marginal improvement on OUR part, that 8 should be 9.
The pessimist in me says 7-5 regular season. I really don't see how even the most pessimistic fan could see us winning less than 7. The Kool Aid side says 10, with losses to WVU and one other road game (USM???).
God help CUSA if our O line gels and the kicking game is good. If those two things happen (and I don't think they will, this year, especially the kicking game) we could run the table.