Topic: After looking over the 2012 football schedule................

[Scottyo614]

First I joined the boards last year so I haven't been telling you anything and I've never said you didn't know anything. Second As I posted before I thought after game 1 Doc year 1 I said 3 wins and figured 5 last year... I'm not just drinking kool aid.

I respect what Snides tried doing here, but it took too long. It was obvious with BA if we would go under center and run the football we could move it well year 1. Why? You have recruited for that style. The Teams equipped for it. Snyder had power runners, big receivers and run blocking lineman. It's clear Doc is looking for lineman who are athletes. It's clear he's not looking for the big WR or the power back. Is Martin Ward a good back? In a power system yes. Was Terrell Edwards-Maye good? Yes in Snyders system.

You keep saying better personnel...but it's completely different systems. The system QB bit is a myth in college. You wouldn't put Matt Barkley in a read option system. He'd look terrible. Denard Robinson was terrible in pro sets last year. Hoke, who is a great coach IMO, adjusted well to support the transition. We can beat a dead horse all day why they had BA running the O year one, but square peg round hole and for whatever reason Doc saw it as his best option.

Docs personnel on D gets their shot this year... And the O will change to more Doc recruits this year... It's June... We will find out game 3 what we got. On paper we look good.

[extragreen]

I've been hearing the same thing for 7 years.

Until I SEE improvement, I'm not accepting optimistic predictions.

[Scottyo614]

Did you by chance get to see the spring game?

[ZackUSAF82]

It must be getting close to football season since our resident pessimist is out in force...

[Greg H]

WVU - we probably lose.  I'd give them 10-1, but you never know.
WCU - we destroy
OU - much of last year's fiasco is fixed, I think.  Much more athleticism and, we are told, more aggressive 2nd level D (a product of athleticism).  On the road, close game.  But we are home.  Herd by 2 TD's.
Purdue.  The first real test.  Much like Lousiville, but a little better.  We are a little better too, and PU tends to lose these games.  They have ND the next week and will ignore us a bit.  It's a toss up, but we might win if we can kick (so we'll probably lose).
Tulsa.  Again, athleticism in the 2nd and 3rd levels killed us last year, as did having the 30 mph wind in our face in the 1st quarter.  The team's relative lack of confidence let it snowball from there.  This year, we are more athletic, there will not be wind and we will be at home.  Also a toss up, but a real solid chance to win.
At USM.  Lost coach, lost VERY GOOD QB and a bunch of other starters.  They are in chaos.  Another very good chance for a win, as we are better than last year and they are going to be much worse.  Probable win, but no guarantees.
UCF.  At home.  Everyone is blowing this team now.  Why?  Seriously.  This is a should win, not a will win.  Will be a hell of a fight and I will NOT miss it.
Memphis.  Who?  Win.
UAB.  Win, but tougher due to last year's humiliation.
Houston.  We are home, and again, we are much more athletic at 2 and 3 levels of D.  This is another we can and probably should win.  They will score.  But we scored a lot on them last year too, if memory serves, and they lost a bunch on an already poor D. 
ECU.  They are considerably worse than last year.  We are better, no doubt, perhaps (I'm praying here) a lot better than last year, particularly by late in the season.  Very tough game, and on the road, we will need some brakes to win.  Thankfully, ECU is good at giving breaks (see TO margin).  Another should win, but I'm not confident in G'Vegas.

Bottom line.  We appear to have fixed a lot of our problems with athleticism at LB and DB.  Cato and the RB's will be better this year, even if only a little (see Van's per-rush average the last 5 games last year - something like 8 ypc).  Re intangibles, you have to look at all the close wins last year.  That is huge.  The pessimists may say it's a bad sign, but it's not.  That team, as long as they were in the game, REFUSED to lose.  That is Doc's biggest strength, not his recruiting.  You can't buy that at any price. 

We could very easily go 5-7 against this schedule.  But we are better than last year, even if only a little, and we won 6 last year (regular season).  Last year's schedule was a "murderer's row" when compared to this year.  Litterally every team we played was better last year, most of them MUCH better than this year, except UCF maybe.  Just on year to year scheduling, we should win 8 rather than 6 (beating WCU is one, the other will come someplace else).  With some marginal improvement on OUR part, that 8 should be 9.

The pessimist in me says 7-5 regular season.  I really don't see how even the most pessimistic fan could see us winning less than 7.  The Kool Aid side says 10, with losses to WVU and one other road game (USM???).

God help CUSA if our O line gels and the kicking game is good.  If those two things happen (and I don't think they will, this year, especially the kicking game) we could run the table.

[exanimate]

Great post Greg and I pretty much agree with everything.

I honestly think that we crush OU this year. Last year they had us circled on their calendar. They focused on us. Hell they broke out their special uniforms for us. That emotion won't be there this year, but I think it will be on our side. Many of these guys will want revenge.

[2xBison]

sounds good to me.

worst case 8.  best case 10.

less than 8, start the coaching search

[svherd]

I dont know why UCF is getting all the love as well. We are certainly not expected to do too much according the CUSA board. The season could go in many directions. As pointed out earlier, how the O line plays and the kicking game performs may be the keys. The D will be finding their way early but should be OK.

OU still has us in their sights. Solich has them playing hard and with a chip on their shoulder. You can't help but like the moxy of the Tettleton kid. Lke WVU and UCF, I'm learning to hate the Bobcats. We owe them a butt kicking.

[HerdKelly]

Purdue lost to Rice last year.  They are average at best

[Greg H]

If you took away anything from my very long post...it should have been that all of our opponents, with the exception of WVU, are average or less than average.  This "easy" schedule could not have come at a more opportune time. 

I was largely happy with the overall outcome last year, all things considered.  If we do not win 8 regular season games, I am going to be extremely dissatisfied.  8 wins I can deal with agains this schedule, but just barely.  Only 9 or more will make me happy.

[HerdHead]

sounds good to me.

worst case 8.  best case 10.

less than 8, start the coaching search

Is that your required regular season total or does it include a potential conf championship game, and/or bowl game?

[BHFIOHIO]

Where was the Rice-Purdue contest? I figure with 16-18 starters back including the QB they will be hard to beat.

[extragreen]

It must be getting close to football season since our resident pessimist is out in force...

And once again the blind optimists are predicting 8-10 wins. I predict the optimists after this year will be 0-8.

[DJdaHERDfan]

Honestly, I think this is the year for Doc's Herd.

I think everything is in place to finally make a legit run at the CUSA title.

I see WVU as our only true tough game on the road.

Everyone else is very winnable.

If Doc's Herd fails to win 6 games this year, I agree, start the coaching search.

[ought-three]

  Louisville and SoMiss were a couple of significant upsets. 5-7 was a perfectly reasonable prediction I think. I can certainly appreciate the fervor and optimism, but I think we are still one year away from being a serious contender from day one. I think DD wins are very possible for 2013-14.

[ZackUSAF82]

And once again the blind optimists are predicting 8-10 wins. I predict the optimists after this year will be 0-8.

Why can't you just let them be optimistic?  I don't know what to expect from this team, all I know is I'm tired of waiting and I think there's no reason we shouldn't be in the CUSA championship this year.  If we don't make it and underachieve again then I think it's time to tell Doc to hit the trails.  It won't happen but that's how I feel.  I don't see the point of you constantly saying how you think we're going to suck is really beneficial to anything.  State your point, move on.  You like to beat a dead horse until it's minced meat and I'll never get that.  I don't think you and I feel all that differently, I know you support the team and you'll be there cheering them on (probably more than me unfortunately) but we just handle it in a different way I guess.  No biggie, I just figured I'd throw you a jab since I haven't had the chance in a while...  ;)

[extragreen]

Why can't you just let them be optimistic?  I don't know what to expect from this team, all I know is I'm tired of waiting and I think there's no reason we shouldn't be in the CUSA championship this year.  If we don't make it and underachieve again then I think it's time to tell Doc to hit the trails.  It won't happen but that's how I feel.  I don't see the point of you constantly saying how you think we're going to suck is really beneficial to anything.  State your point, move on.  You like to beat a dead horse until it's minced meat and I'll never get that.  I don't think you and I feel all that differently, I know you support the team and you'll be there cheering them on (probably more than me unfortunately) but we just handle it in a different way I guess.  No biggie, I just figured I'd throw you a jab since I haven't had the chance in a while...  ;)

Firstly because I enjoy being told the last 7 years how I'm not a Herd fan and how little football I know.
Secondly I enjoy watching the better Herd fans and more knowledgeable Herd fans explain how I'm going to be wrong for the first time for the last 7 years.

[img width= height=]http://www.graphicsgrotto.com/animatedgifs/stickfigures/images/agstickfigures12.gif[/img]  

[Herdmeister]

Honestly, I think this is the year for Doc's Herd.

I think everything is in place to finally make a legit run at the CUSA title.

I see WVU as our only true tough game on the road.

Everyone else is very winnable.

If Doc's Herd fails to win 6 games this year, I agree, start the coaching search.

I think you're one year early. I fully expect the 2013 team to be the odds on favorite to win it all... This year 6-6 with a shot at 7-5

[wvmafia]

I think you're one year early. I fully expect the 2013 team to be the odds on favorite to win it all... This year 6-6 with a shot at 7-5

Just wondering Ty, what part of this team leaves you thinking this way?  Where is our deficiency as you see it?

I honestly see 8 regular season wins, but I am VERY concerned with our kicking game.  I think that Kase won us one (and probably two) games last year and while Tyler wasn't put in tons of pressure packed situations, he made 80% of his FGA's.  I think that we may take a big step back in that area and as we all know, special teams can cost a team.

I think that offensively we will be better and I think defensively we will miss Vinny, but will improve at the second level and the secondary, consequently being as good or better overall.

JMHO

[svherd]

I agree with Meister. Our question marks are kicking game, O line, LB's and secondary. Yeah we have talent at those positions but in some spots its untested . I've read several football giudes just to see what teams have coming back. USM lost their coaches and a very good QB, but they have most of their RB's, WR's. lineman and many d players back. ECU lost Davis but they have most others back. Houston lost a ton, but have talented kids in the wings. Tulsa lost Kinne but picked up the Husker QB to step right in. OU gave us a butt whipping and has Tettleton and most of their O and D lines back. Purdue is B10 and has 17 starters back, including their starting QB - the first time they have had that luxury in 3-4 years.

Long story short - we CAN compete and win each game we play but with our raod woes and the questions above, I think we are a year away as well. I hope I am damn dead wrong though. 7 wins in the regular season and a bowl win would be a damn good year. 2013 - WE SHOULD BLOW THIS LEAGUE OUT OF THE WATER, same for 2014 as well. We'll have 18 starters coming back for 2013 and if Doc can find some good WR's to replace Dobson and Co., we will be in very good shape. Plus, we have USM and ECU coming to Huntington in 2013. jmo.

[Greg H]

Very well thought out SV.  Where we may disagree is on the youth question with the line, lb's and db's.  My thinking is that they struggle with WVU, begin to gain confidence with WCU and advance very rapidly from there going into conference play, particularly once they go to Purdue and figure out how well they can play against pretty good competition.

[Scottyo614]

Firstly because I enjoy being told the last 7 years how I'm not a Herd fan and how little football I know.
Secondly I enjoy watching the better Herd fans and more knowledgeable Herd fans explain how I'm going to be wrong for the first time for the last 7 years.

[img width= height=]http://www.graphicsgrotto.com/animatedgifs/stickfigures/images/agstickfigures12.gif[/img]  

Extragreen I think you are full on right about coaching in one of your posts. If we run safety out of the box they showed all year and in spring, against OU we are looking at a long night. Rippon finally has speed to run his D. In the spring game the run draws worked better and Cato looked better running, but we do need better "flow" in the game.

Look I understand you are in the minority, You've been jilted year after year. I wouldn't even call you negative, but waiting for what you've came to expect. Now we might not agree on the progression it took to this point I.e. recruits and philosophy, but that doesn't make you any
less knowledgable. Just hope by the end of the year it's you telling me you were wrong and not me making a thread apologizing :)

[BHFIOHIO]

According to the only site I checked(maybe P Steele) USM has 12 returning starters...UCF has 14 and ECU has 13 or 14. We have 13 as well. So the only big diff is we have a QB with some exp and two others dont. UCF is in Huntington. I agree with 2X.......should win 8 even if we lose at Purdue(I look to be a DD dog outa Vegas)

[HerdHead]

I see WVU as the only road block to an UNDEFEATED SEASON.

MARSHALL is gonna do it this year!!!

I BELIEVE !!!!

HERD FOOTBALL IS BACK ON TOP IN 2012!!!!

Honestly, I think this is the year for Doc's Herd.

I think everything is in place to finally make a legit run at the CUSA title.

I see WVU as our only true tough game on the road.

UNDEFEATED !!!!

If Doc's Herd fails to win 6 games this year, I agree, start the coaching search.

DJ, you're all over the place.  First, we should go undefeated, this is the year, everything is in place, etc.  Next, if Doc doesn't win 6(!!) games, we should start looking??!?  SIX??

[Herdmeister]

Just wondering Ty, what part of this team leaves you thinking this way?  Where is our deficiency as you see it?

I honestly see 8 regular season wins, but I am VERY concerned with our kicking game.  I think that Kase won us one (and probably two) games last year and while Tyler wasn't put in tons of pressure packed situations, he made 80% of his FGA's.  I think that we may take a big step back in that area and as we all know, special teams can cost a team.

I think that offensively we will be better and I think defensively we will miss Vinny, but will improve at the second level and the secondary, consequently being as good or better overall.

JMHO

I see the same weaknesses as you do, Mafia. I also would add the O-line. That is why I see the record I posted above. I have felt pretty much since Doc arrived that the 2013 season would be the one. I, of course, hope I am off by a year.