Topic: Ouch. It gets worse. What will be the excuse this time?

[_sturt_]

"Our TV package is solid for the next three years," Hamrick countered. "As far as I know renegotiations aren't scheduled. Our TV partners like the new Conference USA teams and markets.

"Also, the exit fee for the [departing] schools is a flat $500,000. But the schools must also pay the difference if the next contract is less than the current one. I'd be surprised if the next contract is less, but if it is, the former schools have to collectively make up the difference."

So... as far as Hamrick knows, re-negotiations aren't scheduled... but implicitly, that possibility exists... and sensibly, the networks aren't going to bother to start re-negotiating until everything is pretty much locked in, which it can't really be until the BCS revenue structure is set in stone...

Anyone want to bet that the partners like the new Conference USA so much that they're willing to continue to pay CUSA-level money for the right to broadcast games between these Sun Belt level schools?

Hamrick is paid to put on the best face, but honestly... is there anyone who can't see through that? Wait... don't answer that... yeah, there probably is...

It gets worse though.

Earlier, we'd been led to believe (...from Landon?... I don't recall...) that the exit fees were ~$6 million each.

Hamrick confesses it's $500K.

Hey quarter-fullers... did you catch that? That windfall of $5 mil or so that we were supposedly going to get? Not happening.

But, he says, they'll have to make up the difference if our next contract is less than our current one.

Which truly is great.

That is, it's great as long as the networks don't mind paying steak prices for hamburger, and thus, as long as there is no re-negotiation.

But conventionally speaking, they won't feel so charitable and will want to pay hamburger prices for hamburger... and if they pay Sun Belt-level prices after that renegotiation... about $200K per school per the AL.com analysis, and then the contract after that even doubles to $400K per school... then, that difference is $200K x 14 schools... leaving the defectors with a grand total bill of $2.8 mil to divide between the six of them.

If you just said "wow" to yourself, you aren't alone.

So, not only does Marshall end up going from expecting a ~$5 mil payday from the defectors to a ~700K payday... about 15% of what we'd been led to believe... but the defectors that so many quarter-fullers had been laughing at because of that $6+ mil fee they were supposedly paying?... nah... they're probably out somewhere between $500K and $1 million.

If that smelling salt doesn't do it for you, you might not have a pulse.

[Dunk]

Isn't a lot of the contract value directly related to the media markets encompassed by the conference?

Didn't we gain some good tv markets?

Is the sky falling...wait...don't answer that one. The glass half empty attitude is just depressing. Not sure how you deal with it. There are plenty of positives to focus on, and you can focus on them while maintaining knowledge of where you need work.

[_sturt_]

Isn't a lot of the contract value directly related to the media markets encompassed by the conference?

Didn't we gain some good tv markets?

Is the sky falling...wait...don't answer that one. The glass half empty attitude is just depressing. Not sure how you deal with it. There are plenty of positives to focus on, and you can focus on them while maintaining knowledge of where you need work.

Dunk, even many of the quarter-fullers openly acknowledge... that is, as long as they're talking about the defectors and laughing aloud at the Big East... that it's not so simple as media market size alone.

Keep coming back to this to demonstrate the point... there's a reason why SMU was invited instead of North Texas. It's not necessarily that SMU is that much better. It's that SMU is recognizable. North Texas isn't... many still associate UNT with FCS.

Doesn't have to be depressing. As long as there's no BCS revenue distribution structure, it's not too late... there's still hope.

[Dunk]

Is the Tulane Green Wave a big name?

[goherd24]

Isn't a lot of the contract value directly related to the media markets encompassed by the conference?

Didn't we gain some good tv markets?

Is the sky falling...wait...don't answer that one. The glass half empty attitude is just depressing. Not sure how you deal with it. There are plenty of positives to focus on, and you can focus on them while maintaining knowledge of where you need work.

So did the big east, with better schools and basically they got the same tv deal we have now. We are going to lose a lot on next negotiation of contract.  If we make 500k a year instead of the 1.17 million we do now, we did really good.

[_sturt_]

Is the Tulane Green Wave a big name?

I keep running into this... I can only assume that some 20-somethings are asking (?). (Not intended as an insult if you're not... just thinking out loud that younger people probably wouldn't be as familiar.)

Honestly, Tulane may not have had much success over the last decade, especially in football, but they're a household name. Not a "big" name. But a household name. Generally, people recognize Tulane and know that they play FBS football. They've even been competitive with LSU on occasion. Academically, they're highly regarded... some would even say they're on par with Vandy.

[lexkyherdfan]

Stuart, Tulane is what finally ended thaw BE. 

God you need to get over this and I am saying that as a friend and you know me well enough.  You are going to stress yourself out.  I love Marshall as much as the next person but dang, my life is too important to worry about what might happen.   I decided that a long time ago and feel much better.  Just this week alone I found out a good friend has breast cancer, another friend's mother is with hospice dying frim cancer, a cousin has throat cancer and my wife's grandfather is having tests for an issue.  Since I quit stressing about a situation with MU sports, I am much more at ease in my life.  I enjoy them better and enjoy putting on Herd events. 

[catfanatic1979]

Leave it to sturt to spin a positive comment into a negative one.  ::)

[Buffalo Bop]

Financially, it's not even a contest. MAC teams pull in roughly $100,000 per year from the league's ESPN deal. C-USA has ongoing 5-year $35-million deals with both CBS College Sports and Fox, which, bundled, pays each league school $1.17 million.

"Our last year in the MAC," said MU athletic director Mike Hamrick, "we were given $32,000 from television. This year, in Conference USA, we made $1.1 million. And we don't have to play [football] on Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Sometimes we do play on Thursdays."

Sturt, did you say the MAC was a notch above us too?


http://www.wvgazette.com/Sports/Marshall/201303280230

[bbcard1]

I know you may firmly believe to the contrary, but from a national standpoint there is no difference between North Texas and Central Florida...If you aren't one of the top 50 or so schools...and we aren't, nor are any of the others we're talking about...it doesn't matter. MAC, Sunbelt, etc...you just need to go undefeated or be one loss to get national respect.

One thing that is often overlooked is that the ability to take props is critical to our success. I don't think Big East schools can do so.

Just ride it and trust it. There are a lot of things that are out of control and probably always have win.  Winning solves everything.

[dshoe]

I know you may firmly believe to the contrary, but from a national standpoint there is no difference between North Texas and Central Florida...If you aren't one of the top 50 or so schools...and we aren't, nor are any of the others we're talking about...it doesn't matter. MAC, Sunbelt, etc...you just need to go undefeated or be one loss to get national respect.

One thing that is often overlooked is that the ability to take props is critical to our success. I don't think Big East schools can do so.

Just ride it and trust it. There are a lot of things that are out of control and probably always have win.  Winning solves everything.

There is a big difference between North Texas State and Central Florida.  Stop kidding yourself

[bbcard1]

There is a big difference between North Texas State and Central Florida.  Stop kidding yourself

If you want to say that Central Florida is a large school that has the opportunity to build the infrastructure to be a good academic institution and could CONCEIVABLY have the financial resources to build a high level sports program, I see what you are saying, but the flip side is:

Central Florida is no better than the fifth or sixth most popular school in their own state and have probably fallen well behind Florida Gulf Coast for the moment.  They have virtually no national following despite a massive enrollment. I understand and respect your background, but in this case I think it distorts your point of view rather than clarifies it.

There are about 50 schools that are in one class and there simply isn't a lot of difference in the rest of them. Virtually the ONLY thing Marshall has going for it is that we have some level of fame associated with our story/tragedy. If you're not Alabama or USC or Tennessee, you're something different. Nothing wrong with it, but you just are.

[_sturt_]

Stuart, Tulane is what finally ended thaw BE. 

I agree and have agreed. See http://www.herdfans.com/12thman/index.php?topic=69577.msg548129#msg548129 .

God you need to get over this and I am saying that as a friend and you know me well enough.  You are going to stress yourself out.  I love Marshall as much as the next person but dang, my life is too important to worry about what might happen.   I decided that a long time ago and feel much better.  Just this week alone I found out a good friend has breast cancer, another friend's mother is with hospice dying frim cancer, a cousin has throat cancer and my wife's grandfather is having tests for an issue.  Since I quit stressing about a situation with MU sports, I am much more at ease in my life.  I enjoy them better and enjoy putting on Herd events. 

lexky, I do know you well enough, and I appreciate the sentiment, and I am sorry for all of the health concerns visiting your life right now. Somewhat ironically, my mom literally just called as i was writing this, and told me of a heart episode she had this week.

For my part, I wouldn't say that I'm stressing out. I care enough to say something, even say something over and over, but maybe to the surprise of some, not enough to let it otherwise dominate my day.

[_sturt_]

Sturt, did you say the MAC was a notch above us too?


http://www.wvgazette.com/Sports/Marshall/201303280230

Yes, I did... specifically in context, talking about conferences more likely to spawn the eventual BCS berth competitors from year to year. Thanks for bringing it up.

From the linked article...

And, hey, look at the final football Sagarin computer rankings. The Mid-American Conference was No. 10 among all leagues. Conference USA was No. 11.

[_sturt_]

...One thing that is often overlooked is that the ability to take props is critical to our success. I don't think Big East schools can do so...

Said to Super...

Yes, we can continue to take props. I hear that. But then, when you inventory the best players who were props for us, those typically have been 3-star players who got here and then developed... and we really shouldn't have any trouble attracting 3-star players. The fact that we can continue to take props just means we can continue to take some players who have backgrounds that make them less likely to stick around...

Or let me put it this way... if given the choice of a year-after-year classes of 20 3-star players who qualified and year-after-year classes of 20 3-star players who do not qualify... which do you believe is going to be more likely to put a team in a better position to win year-after-year?

So, the props thing is a fools gold. It's not that we haven't had success with props. We have. But it's that, given their talent level, we were just as likely to have had success if we'd filled those roster slots with other 3-stars, or actually were more likely since qualifiers are more likely to stick around for all four (or five) years.

Said to Penn...

Is it fair for me to give you a list of names?

Tyrell Smith. Josh Johnson. Darius Passmore. Jimmy Rogers. O.J. Murdock. Dexter Moody. Brian Robinson. Travon Van. Kevin Grooms. Amos Leggett.

Referencing Rivals and Scout, those are the 10 recruits since 2002 that Marshall has had that show up as having been rated 4-star.

How many of those guys are playing in the NFL today? How many of those guys even made all-conference? Started more than 2 seasons-worth of games? Even just stayed on the roster for 2 seasons?

4-star recruits that come to Marshall mostly have not panned out as meeting the expectations that go with their level of talent... sometimes, if not quite often, that's because off-the-field issues that confound their getting on the field... sometimes it could be a golden-boy state of mind that keeps them from working as hard as the lesser-starred peers.

So, while it's a more credible argument than just saying, "Well, I just think we'll do better," once again history suggests it's not exactly correct to say that that's going to make all the difference.

What you're saying is that you'd rather have 1/2 to 1/3 of the current TV income, a reduction in bowl opportunities, and a reduction in national reputation in return to have a few new props show up on the February recruit list every year, mostly 3 star guys, though maybe occasionally getting a 4-star prop... never mind how only a percentage of those... history shows... will actually get to school, stay in school, make the grades and stay on the field.

So I guess this is where we just have a difference of opinion. I'd rather maintain approximately the same money, same bowl opps, and same national reputation than to lose so much of that in exchange for a few props, a percentage of whom will ever even play ball for us, and a smaller percentage of whom will ever make a difference.

[IM4DHERD]

Entire premise of the thread is based on bad information.  Hamrick alludes to the $500k base buy-out...There are components of payouts based on media contracts as well as has been published here and elsewhere many times.

If the Knights ultimately decide to join the Big East, Conference USA officials told the Sentinel that UCF would have to pay an exit fee of about $7 million. Schools leaving C-USA must pay their annual share of television revenue under dual contracts with Fox Sports Network and CBS Sports for five years and an additional one-time $500,000 fee.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/12/boise-concerns-c-usa-exit-fees-highlight-big-east-expansion-hurdles/

Also:

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/sports/x68581392/Exit-fees-precede-merger-for-C-USA

[HerdEcon]

Maybe I'm asking a question that has already been discussed since I don't follow discussions on these matters much.  Why would the TV networks continue to pay CUSA the same amount of money if the product is less valuable?  The TV networks are businesses and this whole thing is about money for them.  If that's the case the TV networks must think the new CUSA is at least as valuable as the old CUSA.  Regardless of what some fans think.  

[ThunderValley]

Guys, you are wasting your energy and driving up your stress by trying to compete with _sturt_

He does this for a living

He has you covered  ;D

[_sturt_]

If you want to say that Central Florida is a large school that has the opportunity to build the infrastructure to be a good academic institution and could CONCEIVABLY have the financial resources to build a high level sports program, I see what you are saying, but the flip side is:

Central Florida is no better than the fifth or sixth most popular school in their own state and have probably fallen well behind Florida Gulf Coast for the moment.  They have virtually no national following despite a massive enrollment. I understand and respect your background, but in this case I think it distorts your point of view rather than clarifies it.

There are about 50 schools that are in one class and there simply isn't a lot of difference in the rest of them. Virtually the ONLY thing Marshall has going for it is that we have some level of fame associated with our story/tragedy. If you're not Alabama or USC or Tennessee, you're something different. Nothing wrong with it, but you just are.

It's a question of your goals, bb, it really is.

You said there's no difference between UNT and UCF... and you're right, if the perspective is coming from the question, "Who is going to command national attention and compete for a national championship."... but that's not the only perspective... if it were, why would Marshall even be playing football after all these decades only having had one decent opportunity to be in that position.

So, the other perspective and one that is more salient to Marshall and all of the Go5 schools with the exception of Boise and maybe Cincinnati at this point is the perspective coming from questions like, "Who is more likely to compete for the one BCS berth that Go5 schools will be guaranteed?" And/or, "Who is more likely to gain the greater TV audience, and thus more likely to help its conference command a greater stream of revenue?"

Those are the relevant questions to Marshall and our peers.

To zoom out and just declare that no school who isn't in a position to compete annually for the NC is relevant... that's tantamount to singling out one goal so high that you have an excuse not to care... but, no, we do have reason to care... there is a BCS bowl opportunity that history firmly suggests will more often than not go to a MWC, C-TBN or MAC school... there is substantially more money to be made in C-TBN, and thus, the resources to grow a program that won't be available to schools in CUSA 3.0.

[_sturt_]

Entire premise of the thread is based on bad information.  Hamrick alludes to the $500k base buy-out...There are components of payouts based on media contracts as well as has been published here and elsewhere many times.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/10/12/boise-concerns-c-usa-exit-fees-highlight-big-east-expansion-hurdles/

Also:

http://www.herald-dispatch.com/sports/x68581392/Exit-fees-precede-merger-for-C-USA

Yes... I agree, all of that had previously been the understanding.

What Hamrick said muddies the water.

Key is what does he mean when he refers to the "next contract"...? Is he referring to the next contract after these are done in 3 years, or is he referring to the renegotiated contract that he just said in the sentence before that he didn't think would happen?

It could be taken either way.

Certainly, for Marshall's sake, I'd rather you be right that this is muchadoaboutnothing. Maybe someone can get Hamrick to clarify (?).

[_sturt_]

Maybe I'm asking a question that has already been discussed since I don't follow discussions on these matters much.  Why would the TV networks continue to pay CUSA the same amount of money if the product is less valuable?  The TV networks are businesses and this whole thing is about money for them.  If that's the case the TV networks must think the new CUSA is at least as valuable as the old CUSA.  Regardless of what some fans think.  

I do not disagree.

There is informed testimony in this thread that suggests strongly there is, indeed, a difference in value between say a UCF and a UNT.

Time will tell if they'll renegotiate. As said to begin with and as you concur... no one wants to pay steak prices for hamburger if they don't have to.

[Herdmeister]

Guys, there is nothing you, me or for that matter Mike Hamrick can do to change things. We are in TV market that belongs to wvu, not MU. It would take years and years to change that. We have very limited funds and it's apparent many of our fans don't want to help with that. When only 300+ people have contributed to the Vision Campaign. That's VERY sad. We have fans that want to compete with the SEC and won't put money on the table to keep up with the MAC.

[IM4DHERD]

According to the articles, Marshall should get about $13M from exit/entrance fees...$2m in entrance fees from each from 9 new members plus $6.63M in exit fees ($50k + media contracts component) each from the 7 who are leaving all divided by the remaining 5 members.

(7 x 6.63) + (9 x 2) / 5 = $12.88M (= baseball stadium?)

The quote from Hamrick (not sure where it came from - no link so cannot review the entire context) also says, for the first time as far as I am aware, that the 9 schools that left have to pony up to make up for any shortfall between our current media contract(s) and any new one(s).  If the media wants to pay us "Sunbelt money", the 9 schools that have left have to pay us the difference in addition to the $6.63 each has to pay already.  We are guaranteed to make no less money with any new contracts.

Seems like a good deal to me.

[cincyherd]

Guys, there is nothing you, me or for that matter Mike Hamrick can do to change things. We are in TV market that belongs to wvu, not MU. It would take years and years to change that. We have very limited funds and it's apparent many of our fans don't want to help with that. When only 300+ people have contributed to the Vision Campaign. That's VERY sad. We have fans that want to compete with the SEC and won't put money on the table to keep up with the MAC.

We need more fans.  We could make an effort to recruit new fans.

[_sturt_]

Guys, there is nothing you, me or for that matter Mike Hamrick can do to change things. We are in TV market that belongs to wvu, not MU. It would take years and years to change that. We have very limited funds and it's apparent many of our fans don't want to help with that. When only 300+ people have contributed to the Vision Campaign. That's VERY sad. We have fans that want to compete with the SEC and won't put money on the table to keep up with the MAC.

Meister, you (and others) keep saying this, but with all due respect... and I don't use that phrase flippantly or insincerely... one never reads any response to the counter that says private contributions have not prevented us from being competitive in the past, and that the pending loss of TV revenue is so much more significant... and moreover that there are some obvious political means that still could be (and might be getting) used by Kopp (not so much Hamrick) to try to stay up with our current peers.

And please avoid the reduction to the absurd... no one is suggesting we're SEC material. No one. We're only saying that we've been competitive with the defectors, and we don't want to lose that ground... and I have to think you know all of that. It only clouds what otherwise could be an honest, intelligent discussion when one says someone takes a position that they do not.