Topic: GreenSteve's 2013 Prediction...

[marshallisqbu]

7-5 is the best I see. 

[bbcard1]

I suspect most of you will be pleasantly surprised, and I'll be a little disappointed.

[iherdya]

I think we're probably the only ones who think they haven't.

In what ways have they passed us? They've had two good years, last years success was largely because the schedule they played (anyone with a pulse beat them or played them close, they beat 4 or 5 teams that had 1 or 2 wins on the year).

[2xBison]

I think we win 9-10 games.  If not Doc is horrible.  I don't think he is a coaching genius but I hope he's a guy that can deliver 9-10 wins when we have a lot more talent than a substantial majority of teams we play.  That has worked for us in past and I expect it to again.

I will be disappointed w 8 and would call for firing at 7 wins

[_sturt_]

In what ways have they passed us? They've had two good years, last years success was largely because the schedule they played (anyone with a pulse beat them or played them close, they beat 4 or 5 teams that had 1 or 2 wins on the year).

Don't argue with me. I'm only saying that third parties to the discussion seemingly would agree with OU. Disagree? Argue with Mr. Sagarin... or whatever other quantitative third-party measure you want to find.

[iherdya]

Don't argue with me. I'm only saying that third parties to the discussion seemingly would agree with OU. Disagree? Argue with Mr. Sagarin... or whatever other quantitative third-party measure you want to find.

So, because they've had a "better" season than us the past 3 years they've "passed" us?

Meanwhile, we bringing about 3x the money. In some of our worst years of football attendance we are outdrawing them by 5,000 or so during their best years of attendance.

Anyway, Sagarin in a way proves my point, they won 9 games last year, they finished 0.12 points higher than 4 win Indiana. They benefited from a weak schedule. Using Sagarin, had we played Ohio's schedule we would've had 7 wins NMSU, Norfolk, UMass, Akron, Buffalo, Miami OH, and Eastern Michigan, 3 possible wins Ohio U, Bowling Green andULM, and two likely losses in Kent and Ball State.

Again, they've had some nice success the last two seasons, and to show for it they have 0 conference championships, less than half of the revenue (over two seasons) that we earned last year, on average 5000-6000 less fans at their games, etc.

They haven't passed us, they've only had more wins than us the last two years, but they're still a below average D1 football program in arguably the worst D1 football conference.

[The E-Man]

Vilify, call me names, do what you will.

I'm calling 6-6.... VPI, TU, OU, MTSU, ECU and FIU or USM (if not both) losses.

I'll stand by my record calling John's head coaching record...

GreenSteve.

I'm not going to vilify you, for being so "pessimistic" Steve. This year is going to be a hugh step for us getting the "respect back", we have lost over the last several years. We have key games which will determine our season.. Cato has a very bitter taste in his mouth, especially after the Ohio U loss.. everyone is fearing the Cats except me. We are going to kick their ass and be 3-0 heading into the Va Tech game. We still have an explosive offense, maybe even better than last year. Our kicking game is the key to. We will have a much improved better defense. I can see us winning 10 games and hosting the CUSA championship game here..This is going to be IMO a very special season..

[iherdya]

Alabama's Sagarin Rankings:
2003 - #48
2004 - #59
2005 - #18
2006 - #54

Utah Rankings:
2003 - #25
2004 - #4
2005 - #51
2006 - #46

Utah finished ahead of Alabama 3 out of 4 years, twice significantly higher. Would you say Utah passed Alabama up in 2003? Or would you say Utah had three seasons that were better than Alabama?

[BHFIOHIO]

Evidently ol Phil who tagged us #38 doesnt think they have passed us up and lots of posters think he's smart as a whip dont they?

[firstate]

Let me put it this way:  If the Herd loses more than 4 games this year...everyone should be fired ...from the Athletic Director down

[_sturt_]

Alabama's Sagarin Rankings:
2003 - #48
2004 - #59
2005 - #18
2006 - #54

Utah Rankings:
2003 - #25
2004 - #4
2005 - #51
2006 - #46

Utah finished ahead of Alabama 3 out of 4 years, twice significantly higher. Would you say Utah passed Alabama up in 2003? Or would you say Utah had three seasons that were better than Alabama?

Ahhh... cherry-picking to prove a point, eh?

Let's dig a little further and see... if we get into the way-back machine, and set the timer for 2006... not knowing anything about what would happen after that, and seeing this... per the Wikipedia authors... as the most recent history... what do YOU think we would consider to be the general trajectories of these two programs... would we be more bullish on Alabama or on Utah having just witnessed what we could see in 2006?

Bama 03-06

On December 18, 2002, Alabama announced that Washington State head coach Mike Price would be the next coach for the Crimson Tide program.[67][68] However, in May 2003, Price was removed from his position as the head coach, following a scandal.[69][70][71] Less than a week later, Alabama hired Mike Shula, a former Alabama quarterback and then-quarterbacks coach for the Miami Dolphins.[72] Alabama had reportedly been searching mainly for former Alabama players, including considering Sylvester Croom.[73]

With the difficult offseason, the Shula-led Crimson Tide finished 4–9 in 2003. Bama's 2004 team finished the regular season with a 6–6 record and made their first bowl appearance in three seasons.[74] It was also the first season the team began playing all their home games exclusively at Bryant-Denny Stadium. In previous years, the Tide had played many of their biggest home games at Legion Field in Birmingham. During the offseason, Alabama once again was able to gain a "full" recruiting class, following a probation by the NCAA which occurred in 2001 resulting from recruiting violations that occurred during Dubose's tenure. In Shula's third season, Alabama rolled to a 10–2 record, ending with a 13–10 victory in the 2006 Cotton Bowl. However, the following season, Alabama struggled to find consistency. The team ended with a 6–7 overall record, losing every road game of the season. Shula was terminated as head coach of the program,[75][76] having been the only head coach at Alabama to lose four consecutive games to Auburn.[77] Shula finished his tenure at Alabama with a 26-23 record, however the Tide was later forced to vacate the ten wins from 2005 and six wins from 2006 due to NCAA violation from improper use of textbooks.[78]

Utah:

2003–2004: Urban Meyer years

Urban Meyer joined Utah for the 2003 season. In his inaugural season, the Utes showed a knack for winning close games. He implemented the spread offense and with quarterback Alex Smith led Utah to a 10–2 record, an outright MWC championship,[2] and a 17–0 victory in the Liberty Bowl over Southern Miss.[32] They finished the season ranked #21 in both major polls.[22] He also earned honors as The Sporting News National Coach of the Year, the first Utes' coach to do so.[33]
Utah fans carry the goalpost after the Utes completed a perfect regular season.

In his second season as head coach, the Utes repeated as conference champions.[2] They were a high scoring team; they scored 544 total points on the season, which is a team record, and averaged 45.33 points per game.[34] They played key out-of-conference games against Texas A&M, Arizona, and North Carolina, and they won every game by at least two touchdowns (14 points). After completing an undefeated season, Utah became the first team from a non-automatically qualifying BCS conference to play in a BCS bowl. The Utes played Big East Conference champion Pittsburgh in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, winning 35–7. The Utes finished the season ranked #4 in the AP poll.[22]

Later that year, Alex Smith, who during the 2003 and 2004 seasons compiled a 21–1 record as a starting quarterback, was drafted #1 by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2005 NFL Draft. He became the first player from a college in the state of Utah to ever be drafted first.

After two years with Utah, Urban Meyer left after the 2005 Fiesta Bowl to coach Florida. His record at Utah was 22–2 (.917), which is the highest winning percentage among Utah head coaches.[11]

2005–present: Kyle Whittingham

Utah is currently coached by Kyle Whittingham, who was promoted from defensive coordinator following Utah's undefeated 2004 regular season. Whittingham served as the co-head coach in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl, helping Utah to defeat Pittsburgh.[35]

(edited to include only 2005-2006...) During Whittingham's first two years as head coach, the Utes recorded a 15-10 overall. Under Whittingham, the Utes won both bowl games: the 2005 Emerald Bowl and the 2006 Armed Forces Bowl.

[iherdya]

Ahhh... cherry-picking to prove a point, eh?

Let's dig a little further and see... if we get into the way-back machine, and set the timer for 2006... not knowing anything about what would happen after that, and seeing this... per the Wikipedia authors... as the most recent history... what do YOU think we would consider to be the general trajectories of these two programs... would we be more bullish on Alabama or on Utah having just witnessed what we could see in 2006?

Bama 03-06

Utah:

Did Utah pass Alabama?

[_sturt_]

Did Utah pass Alabama?

Oh geez.

Really? You have to ask?

Okay then.

Count me in the "Absolutely" column. Looking through 2006 glasses... Bama's Mike Price fiasco followed by the Shula years, while Utah just concluded the Urban Meyer era and the new coach had won two bowl games... have to stretch pretty far to come to any other conclusion.

[iherdya]

Oh geez.

Really? You have to ask?

Okay then.

Count me in the "Absolutely" column. Looking through 2006 glasses... Bama's Mike Price fiasco followed by the Shula years, while Utah just concluded the Urban Meyer era and the new coach had won two bowl games... have to stretch pretty far to come to any other conclusion.

So where is Utah today? Where is Alabama today?

Utah didn't pass Alabama, not even close. Even with some BCS money, Utah was bringing in $12m-$15m per year less than Alabama. Alabama was still doubling Utah's attendance, with almost 50k more fans in their stadium every Saturday, etc.

Utah had a short run where they had better on field results than Alabama, but they couldn't dream of passing up Alabama. A school like Alabama hits a rough patch, they can pour 10x the amount into their program that Utah could ever dream of doing.

Just like us, our athletic programs is bringing in 3x the ticket sales that Ohio does right now, it was a much more drastic difference until last year. We've had down football years and we still get 25k or more to come out to football games, while if OU was struggling they get 12k-15k out to watch their football team. We bitch about the lack of donations to the Big Green, but we've averaged around $3.5m in annual donations the last 5 years, while OU has averaged $650k.

[_sturt_]

So where is Utah today? Where is Alabama today?

 

In 2006, Utah had passed Alabama. That is relevant to the original question.

In 2013, we have, as Paul Harvey might say, the rest of the story.

No one would argue that just because Ohio may be considered to have "passed" Marshall in 2013 that that means seven years from now Ohio necessarily will still be in that position.

But, you asked about 2006... and in 2006, I believe most third-parties would have said the Utah program was superior...

And in 2013, most third-parties likely would say that OU has overtaken us.

Not sure why that is such a difficult thing to admit. I mean, I'm not saying they actually ARE superior by my assessment; I'm only saying that most observers on the outside would say that.

[BHFIOHIO]

Phil says not now either and that doesnt even talk of Stadium size, attendance or donations all of which go a long way toward defining a program. You just cant admit when you go too far.

[_sturt_]

Evidently ol Phil who tagged us #38 doesnt think they have passed us up and lots of posters think he's smart as a whip dont they?

Hold up.

Let's take Phil as the voice, irrespective of any quantitative measure.

Is that #38 a prediction of what 2013 will bring, or is it a measure of current status?

Those are not the same thing.

So what does Phil say our current status is?

[ZackUSAF82]

I know it's the off season and all but good grief, I've witnessed some of the dumbest, irrelevant conversations so far this year.  I'll just be happy when we start winning again so hopefully everyone will just shut the hell up and cheer for the team vice all this stupid, pointless and EXTREMELY redundant crap.

[GoHerd2010]

12-0 GO HERD!!

[_sturt_]

GS... iherdya... BHFIOHIO... see what you did? You've upset Zack. Don't be doing that anymore.  :P

[2xBison]

Now that's moderating 😎

[herdman]

Alabama's Sagarin Rankings:
2003 - #48
2004 - #59
2005 - #18
2006 - #54

Utah Rankings:
2003 - #25
2004 - #4
2005 - #51
2006 - #46

Utah finished ahead of Alabama 3 out of 4 years, twice significantly higher. Would you say Utah passed Alabama up in 2003? Or would you say Utah had three seasons that were better than Alabama?
----------

I would say during part of that time Alabama had a bad coach Shula and Utah had a good coach. Wait, maybe that would the same thing with Ohio and Marshall. Ohio went and got a proven winner. We hired a recruiting coordinator.

It is all about coaching at the D1 level. Utah could never pass Alabama which is top tier elite program. But, Alabama could slip when they hire the wrong guy. Utah could excel with a guy like Urban Meyer. In the long run, Alabama is a superior program.   

Right now Ohio has a better coach than we do.
Hummmm.

[herdman]

My early predication has us going 7-5 or 8-4. I will decide between now and the end of August.

[Johnnyherd]

I'm calling 6-6.... VPI, TU, OU, MTSU, ECU and FIU or USM (if not both) losses.

Just curious about what you think will be the main factors in those losses?  

Offense - Can't.... run/pass/convert 1st dwns/score td's?
Defense - Can't stop run/pressure qb/cover wrs?
Special teams?
Penalties?
Coaching?
We just aren't as good / talented / deep as them
We can't play on the road?

If you don't mind?

[svherd]

Opinions are like assholes, we all have one. Some bigger than others. Lol!