Topic: CUSA/MAC Alliance... new and improved

[_sturt_]

- CUSA adds 2 schools... perhaps Georgia State (East) and Texas State (West)

- MAC adds 3 schools... perhaps Army, Delaware and James Madison (all East)

- Top two football schools from the MAC East, MAC West, CUSA East and CUSA West--8 total--are promoted into a conference for the elites of CUSA and MAC... hereafter called the Great 8.

- Regular season play for Great 8:

• 3 conference games versus the other teams originating from their parent conference,
• 3 non-conference games versus three teams from their parent conference,
• 3 non-conference games with contracted opponents, and
• the 3 conference games that constitute the three-round in-season playoff that leads to a conference champion's emergence.

- Regular Season play for CUSA and MAC:

• 5 intra-division games,
• 1 inter-division game,
• 3 non-conference games versus the teams formerly associated with the division that succeeded to the new conference
• 3 non-conference games with contracted opponents

- Both CUSA and MAC crown their champions from among their 12 teams in the traditional way, via conference championship game

- In each succeeding season, either the CUSA or MAC champ automatically is promoted and replaces the Great 8 school associated with their division that is least successful (W/L %) in comparison to the champ; that school is relegated back to its normal division.

- How would TV work? Not much different than it already does. Great 8 revenues are funneled back to the two leagues. But the addition to the agenda, obviously, is the new conference's tournament games, which could spark additional interest over ordinary regular season games


I'm trying to look at this with as little subjectivity as a Marshall fan can bring to the topic... the Excel spreadsheet was constructed using what seemed to be rational criteria without attempting to prescribe any particular end-game. And what we find is this:

75.9 = AAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
90.4 = MWC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
87.3 = Great 8 schools' (top 4 of MAC + top 4 of CUSA) average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012

15.5 = AAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
25.0 = MWC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
19.5 = Great 8 (top 4 of MAC + top 4 of CUSA) average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools

So, the numbers... not me... suggest that the G8 would be right there with AAC and MWC in any given year.

What's more, compare the G8 with what otherwise would be the case if status quo remains...

75.9 = AAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
90.4 = MWC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
113.3 = MAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012 (25% below MWC)
118.7 = CUSA schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012 (31% below MWC)

15.5 = AAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
25.0 = MWC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
35.3 = MAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools (40% below MWC)
38.2 = CUSA average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools (52% below MWC)

So, status quo says that sometimes but probably not often, CUSA and MAC can expect to compete with AAC and MWC for the major bowl slot.

But set up a Great 8 paradigm, and the numbers support that it would be an annual expectation that either a CUSA or MAC school would be in the mix.

[Herd 90]

You have too much time on your hands.   :P  ;)

[svherd]

The MAC wants nothing to do with CUSA or any league. They are very comfortable where they are. If you ever go to their board, they view us and CUSA as below them - bringing nothing to the table academically or athletically. Some of the posts over their, especially by some OU fans are down right comical.

[HerdnClt]

We should be totally thumping  every Mac team we play. If not someone should be held accountable. There is no reason to lose to Mac schools ever.

[_sturt_]

You have too much time on your hands.   :P  ;)

hehe... sometimes, indeed, I do, 90...

[BuyNtelos4]

Why??

Or why not just the great conference USA and screw the MAC.  If we are going to have an Alkiance with anyone it needs to be to benefit us, ala MWC persuing PAC...  Our only sensible alliance for anything would be AAC.  Leave the MAC to partner with the Sunbelt or FCS. 
This would never happen.  No reason for to non BIG 5 leagues to compete to be part of a super non-Big 5 conference.

[herdfan429]

Switch army to cusa.

[_sturt_]

Why??

Or why not just the great conference USA and screw the MAC.  If we are going to have an Alkiance with anyone it needs to be to benefit us, ala MWC persuing PAC...  Our only sensible alliance for anything would be AAC.  Leave the MAC to partner with the Sunbelt or FCS.  
This would never happen.  No reason for to non BIG 5 leagues to compete to be part of a super non-Big 5 conference.

We agree on this much... you have to start with the question, "Why would they do that?"

The reason the PAC would do some minor peripheral arrangement with the MWC is simply a matter of travel costs. There aren't as many schools in the west, so it meets a need.

The reason MAC and CUSA would collaborate?

I come back to this...



As I said earlier,

I'm trying to look at this with as little subjectivity as a Marshall fan can bring to the topic... the Excel spreadsheet was constructed using what seemed to be rational criteria without attempting to prescribe any particular end-game. And what we find is this:

75.9 = AAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
90.4 = MWC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
87.3 = Great 8 schools' (top 4 of MAC + top 4 of CUSA) average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012

15.5 = AAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
25.0 = MWC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
19.5 = Great 8 (top 4 of MAC + top 4 of CUSA) average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools

So, the numbers... not me... suggest that the G8 would be right there with AAC and MWC in any given year.

What's more, compare the G8 with what otherwise would be the case if status quo remains...

75.9 = AAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
90.4 = MWC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012
113.3 = MAC schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012 (25% below MWC)
118.7 = CUSA schools' average Sagarin ranking 2008-2012 (31% below MWC)

15.5 = AAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
25.0 = MWC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools
35.3 = MAC average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools (40% below MWC)
38.2 = CUSA average ranking in comparison to all other Go5 schools (52% below MWC)

So, status quo says that sometimes but probably not often, CUSA and MAC can expect to compete with AAC and MWC for the major bowl slot.

But set up a Great 8 paradigm, and the numbers support that it would be an annual expectation that either a CUSA or MAC school would be in the mix.

It's is the same reason that Ashland Oil and Marathon Oil eventually saw it was smarter to work together, take advantage of economies of scale, reduce replication of effort, and challenge the Exxons and BPs of the world than to continue to be marginalized. MAC and CUSA are essentially in the same boat, like it or not. Sooner they see the reality of the situation, the sooner they can ensure they don't get marginalized. As it stands now, AAC and MWC are positioned to dominate, and there's no reasonable strategy out there that we haven't all been trying to do already ("recruit better!" "coach better!" "train harder in the off-season!")... it's laughable sometimes how simplistic we talk about these things, as-if "hey... schedule more power conference games?... *smacks palm to forehead*... why didn't we think of that before?!?"

Alliance with AAC? I'd be all for it. But you have to tell me why they'd do it. I don't see any incentive.

[mckayt]

As it stands now, AAC and MWC are positioned to dominate

How so?

[_sturt_]

How so?

I've provided "how so." Out of curiosity, I worked up these 5-yr Sagarin averages of rankings, and it is what it is.

So, the question is, instead, how not so? Wishful thinking and optimism are great, but if not supported by something factual, it's hollow and meaningless. You can make the argument that numbers do not dictate the future; and that's correct. But we use numbers in this civilized world because we've figured out that they're an awfully strong indication of what to expect far more often than they are not.

[goherd24]

Wow. This is all just a waste of time.

[Gaylen]

If we do this alliance thing then we should get Army (and offer Navy) for the more national press that West Texas or whatever the other one was.

[BuyNtelos4]

Wow. This is all just a waste of time.

ding ding ding...

[_sturt_]

It's all a waste of time. All of it. But we seem to find something recreational and therapeutic about it all, so we invest some of ourselves in caring.

OH.

Oh, you mean the alliance stuff is a waste of time?

Ahhhh.

Well, yeah, that too. But while the proposed solution might be difficult to imagine, the problem is there regardless and nonetheless.

Before you get too dismissive, though, don't forget that CUSA Commish Banowsky was openly working on this alliance thing long before I latched onto this.

[_sturt_]

If we do this alliance thing then we should get Army (and offer Navy) for the more national press that West Texas or whatever the other one was.

Wouldn't really matter, since there's an alliance... and if Army were good enough, they'd be competing in the Great 8 anyhow.

Here's how it conceivably would get launched...


Another point not raised just yet, but pretty compelling... by adding 5 schools, the MAC and CUSA essentially enable 3 champions to emerge from their ranks rather than just 2. And in so doing, it makes it more realistic/attainable for the lesser teams in MAC and CUSA to turn things around and compete for a title.

[2xBison]

Boise proved strong team weak league and schedule can work we did too in late 90s. Lets do it again and forget this BS

[mckayt]

I still don't see how the AAC and MWC are positioned to "dominate".  Dominate what?  Each other?  The country?  What are they dominating?

[FlyHawk98]

- CUSA adds 2 schools... perhaps Georgia State (East) and Texas State (West)

I LITERALLY stopped reading right there. Not even a waste of my time to read the rest of your pointless post.

[HerdInChicago]

Sturt,

You did some very good research and make some compelling arguments.

However, how would adding any MAC schools increase profits/money (including TV revenue)?

Conferences look at the financial impact of adding a school before looking at "competition on the field."

It is all amount money...money...money.

The majority of the MAC schools' budget are minimal and not even close to ours (Marshall).  Moreover, most MAC schools would not increase the revenue generated from TV.

While adding Ohio or NIU would increase CUSA's "on field" competitiveness...it would not increase revenue.

Add schools that are willing to spend money, improve their facilities and increase the revenue from TV contracts.

Mike...Go Herd!!!!

[_sturt_]

I still don't see how the AAC and MWC are positioned to "dominate".  Dominate what?  Each other?  The country?  What are they dominating?

Aside: It's curious to me that people take the time to reply to something, seemingly only to expose the fact that they didn't bother to read in the first place. Maybe it's all just to have a laugh at the fact that I bother to respond(?). I dunno.

Reply #7. Bold, large type.

[_sturt_]

Sturt,

You did some very good research and make some compelling arguments.

However, how would adding any MAC schools increase profits/money (including TV revenue)?

Conferences look at the financial impact of adding a school before looking at "competition on the field."

It is all amount money...money...money.

The majority of the MAC schools' budget are minimal and not even close to ours (Marshall).  Moreover, most MAC schools would not increase the revenue generated from TV.

While adding Ohio or NIU would increase CUSA's "on field" competitiveness...it would not increase revenue.

Add schools that are willing to spend money, improve their facilities and increase the revenue from TV contracts.

Mike...Go Herd!!!!

Good observation, Mike. And you're right. It all goes back to the money.

It appears that the standardized revenue distribution of the new bowl system isn't going to be significantly different for Boise and the MWC from what it is for Idaho and the SBC. So, in that vein... originally one that I personally thought may be significant... it's not a big deal.

But then, think about this.

Did NIU's appearance in the Orange Bowl make a difference to the MAC?

Yes. Absolutely. Both in terms of national regard and in terms of money.

Even though we all... and I'm in the front of that line... scoff at the MAC's lack of ambition... clearly the attention and money (reportedly as much as $13 million) was eagerly received by that conference, and it's only natural to think that they'd like to keep doing that as often as possible.

The thing is, you want to maximize your potential for being that conference that has that school that made the major bowl. And you have to do that through some innovative thinking about things that are within your power to control, and enact a structure that puts you in the best position possible.

As things stand for the moment, the gap that we all perceived there was between us and the MAC has not only vanished, but most of the schools responsible for that gap have joined with Cincinnati, USF, UConn and Temple and advanced, while we've joined with schools that were the best we could get but that, with the exception of Louisiana Tech, set us back further than if we somehow were allowed to continue on our own. There are three tiers now in Go5... AAC and MWC... us and MAC... and Sun Belt.

Creating a Great 8 puts the odds in our favor that every season one of us from the MAC or CUSA is going to be contending for that major bowl slot, largely by virtue of the built-in in-season playoff mechanism that ensure the Kent/NIU effect... ie, that some team from among the elite is going to finish the season with three wins over good-to-very-good competition.

To not do so is to make that pursuit mostly dominated by the AAC and MWC... only occasionally through odd circumstances will either a MAC or CUSA school jump up to compete, let alone win that right to play in a major bowl.

[_sturt_]

Boise proved strong team weak league and schedule can work we did too in late 90s. Lets do it again and forget this BS

This might not be smart to reply in any rational way to a 2x reply... I know I'm just inviting juvenile insults... but I have to correct this.

Boise's "weak" league was always... always... CUSA caliber. Boise did not play against such weak competition that they could just walk through. Rather, they (Boise) were just that good... and that routinely was proven in the post-season. The reason the perception is there is because it is the power-conference schools' sportswriters' and fans' criticism that they played in a weak league... and of course, to them, the MWC is a weak league... then, other fans in conferences like ours, such as 2x, just picked up on that theme and ran with it.

The problem with playing in a truly weak league is obvious. You've got to beat some quality consistently for anyone to care. You just do. Let's forget this BS that you don't.

[MarshallSteve]

Not No........But Hell No Sturt.

[MarshallSteve]

The Mac is not a forward thinking conference. 10-15 years from now they will still be in the same position they are in now. CUSA on the other-hand has a collection of schools that are actively growing and expanding in large metro areas. Schools that are investing in athletics and academics. Schools with a large geographic fan-base spread out through different states. Schools close enough that they will travel and bring fans.

No doubt about it. CUSA is the place for Marshall to be for the foreseeable future. This current group of schools we are now associated with is great for the University and its fans. Move forward. Never look back. CUSA.

[MarshallSteve]

Sturt....if there is ever any incentive to have an alliance with anybody, it would have to be with the MWC.