Don't know if some folks are just beaten down so they look for the worst as not to get their hopes up. Don't know if some just didn't like the Doc hire so much that they are willing to hope for failure just so they can be right. Don't know if some just don't pay attention so all they can do is live in past years.
People predicting the team to go 6-6 or even 7-5 know very little about our competition and even less about our squad regardless of what you think of the coach. Lets start with our team:
You know Cato, Shuler, Hoskins, Grooms, and Butler. Are you thinking about the fact that we have two deep experience at every line position? We return 8 linemen that have starting experience and a handful more with game experience. Given our schedule, which I'll get to, we will average 40 points again this year even if we have some injuries because we are legitimately 2 deep or better at ever single position. We haven't had that since pre-probation.
The defense is where many are really missing the boat. We have endured a decade of I adequate LB play. Thumper was the only legit LB we have had in CUSA. Guys that had the size, Gale, Carpenter, Kitchens, etc. didn't have the speed. Guys like Burns, Arrington, all the safeties that have been moved up, had the speed but not the size. If some of you haven't seen Houston and Turene then I can understand why you are skeptical. When you see those guys with Holmes and Carter you will realize that we have seething we haven't had in CUSA, a legit LB corp that plays downhill against the run but also has the speed to cover the flats.
Last year we played the last half of the season with 2 CBs and Thomas had to play hurt for us to have two. He and Baxter got subbed out by walkons. This year we will actually have depth. Thomas and Baxter will have to work to even get playing time. Our depth at corner will give us many options at Nickle where last year we had to leave Hunter out there every down and he hardly ever got a blow.
The BC guys were decent safeties and above average in run support but were often a liability in pass coverage. The problem we will have this year is too much high quality depth at the safety position. We are sitting with a 4-star CB (Leggett) who is so aggressive and such a hitter that they moved him to safety. So you have a cover corner who can hit playing safety. Problem is that with Letman looking so good and freshman All American Hunter getting moved back to his natural position Leggett is having to work to just get reps. Oh, and that doesn't count Tindal who the coaches may like the best.
Moral of all this - Houston, Turene, Leggett, Letman, Tindal all have one thing in common, none of them were on the field last year. Neither was Roberts, two year starter at CB who was injured all last year. Because of the increased skill in the back 7, and the scheme of the new DC, the days of dropping 8 and 10 yard cushions are gone. In is tight, physical man coverage and edge blitzing. We will go from giving up 43 a game to giving up less than 30 a game this year. By the time we get to conference play we will be a very good defense.
Now look at the opponents.
Miami was bad last year. They went 4-8 and now have lost their QB and #1 offense option WR. They lost 6 of their last 7 games. Coming to Huntington, opening day, really?
1-0
Garner Webb
2-0
Ohio - people like to fixate on the 2011 debacle but ignore that we beat them in 2009, 2010 and significantly outplayed them last year in a loss. We significantly out gained them but lost due to 2 TOs deep in their territory. They graduated both starting corners and top backup, 3 starting Dlinemen, and top 2 linebackers as well as their kicker. On offense they graduated 3 linemen and their top WR. So if we were even with them last year, better sans turnovers...
3-0
VT - they weren't very good last year, but tough place to play.
3-1
UTSA - went 8-4 last year but that was playing a modified FCS schedule in a transitional year. Rice beat them 34-14, San Jose beat them 52-24, La Tech beat them 51-27, and Utah State beat them 48-17. They did beat Idaho, the worst FBS team, by 7. They have never traveled across the country for a game and its our homecoming.
4-1
FAU - is a dreadful program that has won a total of 3 games against FBS teams over the last two years. It will be a homecoming game for half our team. Their offense has been not very good. They lost their senior starting QB who was about their only offensive bright spot.
5-1
MTSU - I think this will be a dogfight. They return just as much as we do, we play at their place, they will take it as a big game to see where they stand in the conference. With that said, we will see it as an opportunity to show them where we stand in the conference. They went 8-4 but actually gave up more points than they scored. They gave up 30 points to a woeful Memphis team and got shut out 45-0 by Arkansas State to end the season. I don't think they have the offensive firepower to stay with us.
6-1
USM - 2012 was bad for them. They have talent, but they go in to this year with their 3rd HC and schemes in 3 years and no clear front runner for QB coming out is spring. We won't beat them like last year, but we should beat them.
7-1
UAB - last years headscrather game. I think UAB will be decent this year, but not good enough in Huntington were we have handle them every time. Losing Burdette in the middle on D will be big for them. He led the nation in tackles last year with 157 including 17 against us. They also lost Irvin, another LB and their second leading tackler. So the second level goes from their biggest strength to a weakness.
8-1
Tulsa - I will chalk Tulsa up as a loss just so people don't think I'm all sunshine, but there's a compelling case to be made for a Herd victory. They lost 9 starters on D, a D that was #1 in total D in the conference, but one that had real trouble with us. They also graduated that monster back we couldn't tackle. Don't be surprised when we actually win.
8-2
FIU - this program is a dumpster fire. They do have their QB back and he showed some promise last year, but new coach, an athletic department with problems, coming off a 3 win season, one against an FcS and one an OT win against Akron...
9-2
ECU - big game for all the east marbles and the right to play in the championship game. Cato versus Carden. Who's D improved the most. The games in Huntington are always close, except 2007 when we blew them up for our first win of the season in our 8th game. It's a toss up but I like us at home. We had them beat last year in Greenville but for a ridiculous 4th and 10 defensive call.
10-2.
I'm sure we will drop one we shouldn't, but I also think we'll beat Tulsa, so I stick with 10-2. We will host Rice in the championship game.