Topic: 0/3 Picks the Bowls - Episode V: The Tropics Strike Back

[ought-three]

Bowling Green was the second unanimous pick among those I'm tracking (Sagarin, Massey, ESPN FPI, and myself) to fall in the last two days (the first was Utah State). Today is a new day for the unanimous picks, because that's all we have! (Except for Random Randy, who used a simple coin toss to pick each game as a sort of control variable).

Today, on opposite ends of the continent, teams will be squaring off in some locales. All of the conscious pickers are in consensus: Western Michigan over Middle Tennessee in the Bahamas, and San Diego State over Cincy in Hawaii.

Here is the running total so far:


   As you can see, these 90+% success rates that get boasted about are largely due to the number of major mismatches that occur during the season; especially those "money games" where a P5 team hosts a G5 or FCS. Football is an inherently chaotic, probabilistic event that is extremely difficult to know to any great degree of certainty unless the initial conditions are stacked in favor of one team over another. Bowl games usually feature much closer matchups than what you'll find on the average Saturday during the season and so they serve as a real stress test for these formulas - and these aren't even the closest matchups! It's going to be interesting, and I am nervous and excited all at once.

From my family to yours, have a very Merry Christmas, Herd family. I love ya, baby!

[The E-Man]

I appreciate your stats and your accuracy ratio is outstanding!