Topic: By Request: Lousiville @ Clemson - 10,000 simulations

[ought-three]

This type of game is the ultimate test for a prediction model. Two very very good teams playing each other in a game with National Title implications.

[CLEM] Averaging Sagarin's four systems gives Clemson the 2-point advantage.
[CLEM] Massey comes out strongest in the orange corner, favoring Clemson (63%) 35 - 31 (27%) Louisville
[CARDS] Vegas isn't unanimous about this one, but the majority lean Louisville by about 2 (34.5 - 32.5)
[CARDS] Louisville wins 6,667 of my sims at an average score of 37-33

Statistically, the path is a little clearer for Louisville but I think the team that gets off to the fastest start has the best chance of winning. Other than South Carolina State, Clemson's biggest win margin is 19 points. Louisville's closest margin has been 31 points - Marshall. Until somebody actually gives this team a real run for its money, the smart bet is Lamar Jackson and the UL offense to propel the Cards to victory.

[Huffnagel]

thats about as close as it gets

[herd2win]

Clemson will win...they have been waiting for this game...10 points or more.

[banker]

I think the first 20 minutes of our game did more to help Louisville than most people believe.   If they had scored 28 against us in the first quarter I think they would have lost by double digits to Clemson.  Things had been coming too easy for them.  Struggling offensively against us early gives the coaching staff much more attentive ears in practice and film study.

[The E-Man]

I think the first 20 minutes of our game did more to help Louisville than most people believe.   If they had scored 28 against us in the first quarter I think they would have lost by double digits to Clemson.  Things had been coming too easy for them.  Struggling offensively against us early gives the coaching staff much more attentive ears in practice and film study.

I have to disagree Banker, every team has weaknesses and the Ville was exposed. I think you either get better as a team, stay neutral or go down south. With that being said, I don't see the Ville getting better. They have been hitting on all cylinders. Remember when everyone thought the eerdiots couldn't be stopped when they had Austin, Smith, and Co? then they met Texas and their whole world collapsed. Don't be surprised if Clemson beats the Ville by 2 touchdowns or more.

On a brighter note about that 20 mins you mentioned, I was "extremely impressed with our overall team speed" Go back and look at Damian Dozier #90, run stride for stride with Lamar Jackson at the 9:35 mark. Kendal Gant and many more showed great closing speed. Once we get experience for the d-backs and our offense starts clicking, we're going to make some noise again.

[Huffnagel]

I think the cards take it!

[BHFIOHIO]

me too

[svherd]

I hope Clemson wins after some of the UL fans came to some boards and whined like babies about the banner one student displayed and our supposed "cheap shot %^)#@" team. Screw the Cards.

[The E-Man]

I hope Clemson wins after some of the UL fans came to some boards and whined like babies about the banner one student displayed and our supposed "cheap shot %^)#@" team. Screw the Cards.

Yeah, most of their fans was very arrogant! Clemson is going to put a beat down on the Ville. The Tigers know what's on the line. They can't afford to lose if they're hoping to get a shot at a national title.

[Ovaltine Jenkins]

I love D-Watson, but rooting for Lamar and the Cards.

[banker]

I have to disagree Banker, every team has weaknesses and the Ville was exposed. I think you either get better as a team, stay neutral or go down south. With that being said, I don't see the Ville getting better. They have been hitting on all cylinders. Remember when everyone thought the eerdiots couldn't be stopped when they had Austin, Smith, and Co? then they met Texas and their whole world collapsed. Don't be surprised if Clemson beats the Ville by 2 touchdowns or more.

On a brighter note about that 20 mins you mentioned, I was "extremely impressed with our overall team speed" Go back and look at Damian Dozier #90, run stride for stride with Lamar Jackson at the 9:35 mark. Kendal Gant and many more showed great closing speed. Once we get experience for the d-backs and our offense starts clicking, we're going to make some noise again.

That's exactly my point.  I think the players came in to our game convinced (after Florida State) that they didn't have any weaknesses.  I'm sure their coaches knew what they were, but trying to convince the players they have a lot of work to do when they just destroyed the #2 team in the country isn't easy.  Our game gives the coaches film to show them there is still a lot of room for improvement.

It's like any job.  It's hard to tell your best producing sales person that he has room to be even better when he's already out performing everybody else.

[MUalumni0912]

Clemson hasn't looked stellar, but they haven't had to. Georgia Tech showed GT couldn't score and Clemson coasted to win, without having to show much. Louisville however, has shown themselves, which gives Clemson the advantage. Clemson tapes are going to be hard to really show what they have because they haven't really had to show much.
Clemson wins this one by 10.

[ought-three]

Clearly the game could go either way. Both teams have outstanding players. To Louisville's credit, beating a team like Florida State as badly as they did really gave them a bump in the ratings - as it should. Now, if this turns out the be a phantom bump because FSU isn't all they are cracked up to be, then the advantage probably swings to the home-field Tigers.

[The E-Man]

Clearly the game could go either way. Both teams have outstanding players. To Louisville's credit, beating a team like Florida State as badly as they did really gave them a bump in the ratings - as it should. Now, if this turns out the be a phantom bump because FSU isn't all they are cracked up to be, then the advantage probably swings to the home-field Tigers.

I've watched a lot of college football games this year as always. I'm a college football junkie! I can tell you, Florida State isn't a top 20 as of yet, they have the talent but they're young and experience up front of both sides of the ball. I'm not taking anything away from the Ville, they're a very talented team. Clemson will beat the Ville. I wouldn't be surprised if it's by 14 points or more..

[Green Dog]

No way I would bet on this one. Momentum and gaining confidence
will be huge in this one.

I know I want Louisville to win so they can get closer to the big dance.
Would love to see some new blood in the playoffs.

 

[ought-three]

UPDATE: Sagarin's new feature (I didn't notice!) lists favorites by rating system (he apparently has four now):

         FAVORITE              Rating  Points  Golden  Recent   UNDERDOG
========================================================================================
  507    CLEMSON                 0.20   -0.50    4.02    3.81   louisville

So, put Jeff in the Clemson column..

[goherd24]

Clemson will win...they have been waiting for this game...10 points or more.

Louisville is going to roll clemsonx maybe worse than FSU. Clemson is slow, their lines are subpar, and they just plain arent very good, in relation to true top 10 type teams.

Louisville 55 Clemson 17

[ought-three]

The key stat in this game for me is returning tackles. Clemson has just four of their top tacklers back, Louisville has eight. This isn't going to be a defensive struggle by any means, but when it counts, that may be the difference.