I don't think its unfair to ask those questions at all, but I'll agree with others, given the circumstances of his arrival I'd say its more like season 3... a la the late arrival of Snyder in football. As far as post season goes, its just different circumstances than football. A .500 record doesn't guarantee you post season play in a meaningless game. It's the NIT, NCAA or bust with DD and I agree. In football, a bowl game gets you an extra 3 weeks of practice, not necessarily so with basketball. We're a one bid league. Win the tourney and thats the only way to meaningful postseason. DD wants it to meaningful not playing a MAC school in Florida in front of 500 fans with another 500 watching at home. The difference in how these guys are leaving are a lot different than how they leave in football as well, not to say the defections don't hurt, just sayin, it isn't quite the same. I think 15 games as some are saying is way undershooting it. You'll be surprised I think. But the key is getting Jon to stay another year. If he does, we win CUSA and go to the dance.
My take is that if we can continue to improve even with the roster losses from 2016-17 squad, that can be a major key for greater success down the road. Would certainly show prospective recruits that the program is in solid hands and continued winning trend makes it more appealing. Would also perhaps be the deciding factor in whether some of our experienced players, like Elmore, stay around for another season.
I assume Elmore is close to his degree, perhaps by the end of this school year. If Herd has another "close but no cigar" year, with no meaningful post season (can't help wonder if Danny's aversion to the CIT and the like may rest more on his desire to get out on the golf course as soon as he can on a warm March day, but that's another story), whether Elmore, and possibly others, will say "sayonara" to Herd basketball.
What about Penava? I would imagine he would be close to having his degree by next summer, too. What if he has a very solid season for the Herd this year. But the team has a so-so season. Would he be tempted to take his degree and return overseas a year early for a possible pro career in Europe, like Nikolic did?
Back to Elmore. He has another good year personally but team comes up short of post season tourneys again. Would he elect to forego senior season? Or, perhaps, go to a larger major program as grad transfer, thinking that would improve his pro prospects?
So what if Herd starts the 18-19 season without Milan, without Penava and without Elmore? Who is our backup to Iran, playing college competition for the first time? Don't think our freshman forwards this season are capable post players. Perhaps if we had kept and developed Dozic (oops, did I mention another defection from the good ship "Danny D"?).
Herd goes without a championship and post season tourney through 2018-19, season 5 no matter what others may say. Then, perhaps, it becomes obvious that there is more to having a successful college basketball program than "a lot of teaching".